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OLM 20140605B The Prime Factors

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 5 June 2014, at 12:35 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140605B The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

5/1 5/4

Compared to our recent 41 play the gammon race is now both closer and shorter both of which argue for the bold play.

It is ten more shots though arguing more strongly against the bold play. Nine checkers off though means they win fewer of the shots mitigating the extra shots.

I don't see the delayed shot danger as a big difference. After 4/o 4/3 most rolls either clear or leave a shot right away which often resolves the question. They don't want to wait for a shot coming from the 3 point stack because of backgammon danger.

There is more than one way to lose a gammon here. Even though it is better for racing the increased chance of getting hit losing the gammon if not the game is a factor.

--

I see the bold play as being worth about 3 effective pips. Compared to the recent 41 we are filling a gap instead of stacking on to the ace point. That would be about 15% in gammon race. After bold play we get hit immediately about 1/6th of the time and after the safe play about 1/18th of the time. Adding in some later shots means about 20% and 10%

Let's say 50% vs 35% advantage getting gammon in racing variations. 50% of 80% is 40% and 35% of 90% is 31.5% for an increase in gammons of 8.5%.

Losing about 4% more games is too dangerous and the almost 10% more hits does that.

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