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Blossom

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 5 June 2014, at 8:48 p.m.

In Response To: Blossom (svilo)

"How do you decide on the right move"

This is a difficult play. You need to ask a bunch of questions and each has subquestions. Often thinking if there is an efficient cube after a bad roll by opponent is crucial so you are doing a bunch of non trivial cube action decisions along this path.

There are a lot of options here. One can hit in various ways leaving one blot or two. If no hit 7/6 7/5 or 8/6 7/6 are possible.

With hitters from 4 points to point on him, most 1's to pick and pass, and most rolls with a 6 at least being able to loose hit or race with 66 looks like a cash if he doesn't hop. If he gets a 5 you lose almost all your race chance but if he gets the 5 had lost most of it already. I like 7/6 7/5 more than 8/6 7/6.

Is hitting better? Suppose you loose hit 4/3. Is 8/6 or 7/5 better? 8/6 is safer but after his dances your position is not as good. But are they both strong cubes? Then it won't matter much. But maybe we can just compare to 7/6 7/5 to rule them both out. Opponent has 20 good rolls and 16 bad rolls in both. If hit the 33 and 34 are not so good actually though. The other 17 numbers look to be better though due to gammons. Looks like we need to have a cash on the 20 bad numbers. I think 4/3 with 7/5 does that (close him out on 12 rolls and on other 24 rolls he will be less than 1/3 to win) but 4/3 with 8/6 is far from a cash. Since 16 numbers cash we need to decide if the 20 hitting numbers after 4/3 7/5 are worse for us than the escaping 6 and escaping with hit 5 after we play 7/6 7/5.

In exchange for the racing chance we maintain after his escaping 6's and the lower gammon losses we trade away those 3 hitting rolls that force him to blot and also the chance he may enter and get stuck next roll. I am not confident but will say 7/6 7/5 I better.

Now there is still the hit and pick up a blot options leaving one blot in the inner board. Not hitting on some of his entrances helps but he still has plenty of good numbers and the cube looks too weak after his dances. I will try 7/6 7/5

Messages In This Thread

• Blossom
  svilo -- Thursday, 5 June 2014, at 2:45 p.m.
  • Blossom
    Bob Koca -- Thursday, 5 June 2014, at 8:48 p.m.
    • Blossom - the real position:)
      svilo -- Friday, 6 June 2014, at 9:04 a.m.
      • Blossom - the real position:)
        Bob Koca -- Friday, 6 June 2014, at 12:52 p.m.
        • Blossom - the real position:)
          Michael Nielsen -- Friday, 6 June 2014, at 8:36 p.m.
        • Blossom - the real position:)
          svilo -- Friday, 6 June 2014, at 9:34 p.m.