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Even better

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Friday, 6 June 2014, at 2:49 a.m.

In Response To: Even better (phil simborg)

I never asked you to do anything for me in that post.

The rule is close at 3a 3a blitz positions. The rule says will need 35% to take here but looks to be about 33.5%. Close though.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
3 point match
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aa-B-BC-A---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 66.55% (G:27.65% B:1.23%) 66.44% (G:28.13% B:1.24%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.45% (G:7.35% B:0.34%) 33.56% (G:7.51% B:0.38%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.662 +1.346
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.873 (-0.127)
Double/Take:+1.012 (+0.012)
Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I have a different approach. I know the 54S 33A F equity at money and various scores so have an idea how much to adjust in the early game cubing range and for races I used rollouts to actually get the "right" values for races instead of just using the same 68% value. For other position types I need to guess on the adjustments a bit though. If someone wants to learn more I charge $50 an hour for a lesson and also posted about this approach here: http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=97777

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