Take a 3rd checker off and all of a sudden a different two blot play gets a lot better. Why?
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 55 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 72
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBaBBBDA-----------bbbcc-:1:1:1:12:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 12 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 7/5 4/3* | eq: +0.001 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
53.37% (G:13.39% B:0.20%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 7/6 7/5 | eq: -0.008 (-0.010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.45% (G:1.97% B:0.01%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 7/6 5/3* | eq: -0.041 (-0.042) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
55.31% (G:13.61% B:0.21%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 8/6 4/3* | eq: -0.074 (-0.075) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
57.87% (G:7.20% B:0.05%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 4/3* 3/1 | eq: -0.144 (-0.145) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.90% (G:8.48% B:0.07%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 53 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 72
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBaBBBDA-----------bbbbc-:1:1:1:12:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 12 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 7/6 5/3* | eq: -0.056 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
54.59% (G:13.83% B:0.26%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 7/5 4/3* | eq: -0.058 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
54.21% (G:14.96% B:0.28%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 8/6 4/3* | eq: -0.092 (-0.036) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
58.50% (G:8.65% B:0.07%) | |
|
| 4. | 4-ply | 7/6 7/5 | eq: -0.136 (-0.080) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
62.70% (G:2.31% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 5. | 4-ply | 5/4 5/3* | eq: -0.233 (-0.177) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
63.93% (G:8.55% B:0.10%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
To answer some questions I asked myself, the original position does indeed give efficient cubes after the chinup and double blots. The one blot attempts are not even cubes after a dance.
  
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 53 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 69
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBaBCCBA------------bddc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 80.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 80.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 19.64% (G:0.32% B:0.00%) | 19.45% (G:0.32% B:0.01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.604 | +1.215 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.797 (-0.203) | |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.083 (+0.083) | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 61 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 69
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aBBAACBCA-----------bbccc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 78.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 78.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 21.75% (G:0.38% B:0.00%) | 21.13% (G:0.46% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.561 | +1.146 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.783 (-0.217) | |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.026 (+0.026) | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 61 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 69
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aCB-ABBDA-----------bbccc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 66.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.86% (G:0.97% B:0.01%) | 33.40% (G:1.03% B:0.01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.313 | +0.643 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.599 | |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.452 (-0.146) | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.401) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 21.1% |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10