[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

OLM 20140606A The Dilly Builders

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Friday, 6 June 2014, at 2:49 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140606A The Dilly Builders (Jason Lee)

Only 65 64 and 54 leave shots, and then we have to hit it.

1/6 * 11/36 is not a very big number, something like 5%.

As for the risks of staying, 11 & 22 are real trouble if we stay, but any other numbers are just race. This is also about 5%. With a gammon value of about .55 it would make sense to risk additional gammons 5% of the time to gain an additional 5% wins, but given that they'll have 9 off before we can hit we won't win more than 40% of the time when we hit.

So I'll run for it. After 23/17 we'll need 5 transitions to save gammon where they need 7 (and they are on roll)

23/17

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.