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Too Good To Double Confusion

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 8 June 2014, at 5:18 p.m.

In Response To: Too Good To Double Confusion (phil simborg)

Phil wrote:

You hit the nail on the head when you said it is all about whether or not he is still dropping on the next roll.

This is absolutely correct, and important enough that I want to emphasize it again. The primary consideration is not how many (pseudocubeless) gammons the computer says you win versus how many (pseudocubeless) games you lose. The primary consideration is, what is going to happen in the very next exchange? If you win relatively few gammons but you can't lose your cash in the next exchange then it will be right to play on. Conversely, if you win relatively many gammons but there's a serious risk that you will regain your market in the next exchange, then it may be right to cash.

Walter Trice had a phrase that I liked. To paraphrase him slightly, deciding to play on is not an irrevocable vow to hang on to the cube until the end of the game. It's only a decision to hang on to the cube until the next roll. Then you must re-evaluate. I have often seen players stop to think about whether they are too good, and then after deciding to play on, they never stop to think again—they just keep rolling and rolling without missing a beat, even when there's a sudden change of fortune. This is not what playing on is about. Every roll is a cube decision! This is especially true when you are too good to double.

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