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Too Good To Double Confusion

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 8 June 2014, at 5:46 p.m.

In Response To: Too Good To Double Confusion (AP)

(1) It's not a take, because Opponent only wins 37%, and he can get 40% by passing.

(2) Is it a double? You can get 60% from a redouble/pass. The cubeless numbers are a first indication of whether you can do better holding the cube. They say you win 33% single games and 30% gammons, and lose 10% gammons.

(33% * 60%) + (30% * 100%) + (27% * 18%) = 20% + 30% + 5%. Only 55%, less than 60%. But that does not mean you should double. You are not playing a cubeless game. If you don't double now, you might double later, winning many games with a double/pass. That will (1)cut down on your cubeless gammon wins, but not much, since you usually won't be redoubling in those games that are going especially well for you; and (2) definitely cut down on your cubeless gammon losses. As an example, if with a later double/pass you can convert all your cubeless gammon losses to 2-point wins, your equity holding the cube now is

(43% * 60%) + (30% * 100%) + 27% * 18%) = 26% + 30% + 5% = 61%, slightly more than 60%.

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