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OLM 20140611B The Prime Factors

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 12 June 2014, at 2:53 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140611B The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

The Dilly Builders vs. The Prime Factors

Click any move to see the position.

Game 1   9-away, 9-away   Dilly Builders: 51S-54S-42P-61P-33A-F-C-P
Game 2   8-away, 9-away   Prime Factors: 52S-64H-62U-41P-21$-41U-F-N-42P-52C-C-T-41P-31P-31H-32H-F-22N-51S-X-11n-31H-52U-F-R-P
Game 3   8-away, 7-away   Prime Factors: 64S-61P-52U-51H-44P-41A-42H-51S-N-55M-64H-N-F-N-43H-F-C-P
Game 4   7-away, 7-away   Dilly Builders: 63S-42H-41S-61$-41H-54@-55A-F-N-32C-F-32D-55H-42E-32O-61H-43U-63O-53E-65S-21K-63H-N-52U-54R-N-42X-F-C-P
Game 5   7-away, 6-away   Prime Factors: 63S-62X-51U-44I-53-21C-55P-F-C-P
Game 6   7-away, 5-away   Dilly Builders: 54S-55A-F-N-63H-4-C-T-43H-2-65O-F-61E-21H-32C-42P-63R-32D-42S-41O-33P-22J-52H-32B-53S-64R-61A-31n-62j-44J-64-41d-65B-31J-61-41N-410-113-113-43R-41B-42D-421-62a-31B-62R-66-31
Game 7   7-away, 1-away, Crawford   Prime Factors: 61P-21$-51S-43C-55

White is The Dilly Builders

score: 2
pip: 157
9 point match
pip: 154
score: 8

Blue is The Prime Factors
Blue to play 55

E (Each) = 23/13, 6/1*(2)

I looked at three plays.
  • a (attack) = 7/2(2), 6/1*(2)
  • B (Both) = 23/8, 13/8
  • E (Each) = 23/13, 6/1*(2)

I quickly dismissed B. I would consider it more seriously if we could escape both our rear checkers. Even then, hitting and making the 1pt would probably be my choice.

The attacking play a deserved a bit more attention. We have 10 checkers in the zone, so one dance is all we might need to have things turn grave for the Dillies. I saw three problems with attacking.

  1. The Dillies have made their 5pt. That counts for a lot in the way of blitz defense.
  2. The Dillies would have 15 rolls to anchor on our 5pt. Were that to occur, we would have 4 semi-dead checkers planted behind their anchor, and slim prospects for forming any structure in front of it.
  3. The biggest problem is that blitzing is not the right game plan for us. A blitz gains much of its equity from the gammons it wins. At a DMP-like score, we do not gain by those gammons. We get all the downside that comes when you risk a blitz, but only half of the upside.

That left E. It gains a tempo, and allows us to escape with one checker. Making the 1pt is not entirely a waste. Since the Dillies own our 5pt, we need to shift away from a priming game plan anyway. Making points behind their anchor, and playing tactically to get a hit, should be one of our plans in this position. The other is to race, a strategy that also fits with play E.



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