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OLM 20140611B The Prime Factors
Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 12 June 2014, at 2:53 a.m.
In Response To: OLM 20140611B The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)
The Dilly Builders vs. The Prime Factors
Click any move to see the position.Game 1 9away, 9away Dilly Builders: 51S54S42P61P33AFCP
Game 2 8away, 9away Prime Factors: 52S64H62U41P21$41UFN42P52CCT41P31P31H32HF22N51SX11n31H52UFRP
Game 3 8away, 7away Prime Factors: 64S61P52U51H44P41A42H51SN55M64HNFN43HFCP
Game 4 7away, 7away Dilly Builders: 63S42H41S61$41H54@55AFN32CF32D55H42E32O61H43U63O53E65S21K63HN52U54RN42XFCP
Game 5 7away, 6away Prime Factors: 63S62X51U44I5321C55PFCP
Game 6 7away, 5away Dilly Builders: 54S55AFN63H4CT43H265OF61E21H32C42P63R32D42S41O33P22J52H32B53S64R61A31n62j44J6441d65B31J6141N41011311343R41B42D42162a31B62R6631
Game 7 7away, 1away, Crawford Prime Factors: 61P21$51S43C55
White is The Dilly Builders
score: 2
pip: 1579 point match
Crawfordpip: 154
score: 8
Blue is The Prime FactorsXGID=aaBDBAcDcbeAA:0:0:1:55:2:8:1:9:10 Blue to play 55 E (Each) = 23/13, 6/1*(2)
I looked at three plays.
 a (attack) = 7/2(2), 6/1*(2)
 B (Both) = 23/8, 13/8
 E (Each) = 23/13, 6/1*(2)
I quickly dismissed B. I would consider it more seriously if we could escape both our rear checkers. Even then, hitting and making the 1pt would probably be my choice.
The attacking play “a” deserved a bit more attention. We have 10 checkers in the zone, so one dance is all we might need to have things turn grave for the Dillies. I saw three problems with attacking.
 The Dillies have made their 5pt. That counts for a lot in the way of blitz defense.
 The Dillies would have 15 rolls to anchor on our 5pt. Were that to occur, we would have 4 semidead checkers planted behind their anchor, and slim prospects for forming any structure in front of it.
 The biggest problem is that blitzing is not the right game plan for us. A blitz gains much of its equity from the gammons it wins. At a DMPlike score, we do not gain by those gammons. We get all the downside that comes when you risk a blitz, but only half of the upside.
That left E. It gains a tempo, and allows us to escape with one checker. Making the 1pt is not entirely a waste. Since the Dillies own our 5pt, we need to shift away from a priming game plan anyway. Making points behind their anchor, and playing tactically to get a hit, should be one of our plans in this position. The other is to race, a strategy that also fits with play E.
Mike

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