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MCG vs Mochy: Nactated Match

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 12 June 2014, at 3:48 a.m.

In Response To: MCG vs Mochy: Nactated Match (Nack Ballard)

Taking four off turns a likely backgammon and sure gammon into less than a single win equity when white gets a 1 or 2, then blue gets a 1 other than 11, then white hits with an ace. About 1/18 chance of costing about 2 points

Playing safe will turn some backgammons into gammon wins. White would need to get good enough doubles (probably 44 or better) at least once while blue does not get doubles or an ace. About 1/6 * 1/2 = 1/12 chance of costing about 1 points.

Ill try the safe play.

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