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is Player 2Bearing In from the 7pt Implies Wastage
I agree with Tim’s detailed analysis, but I chose 7/4 based on the variation where Yellow does not roll a large doublet next turn. I got lazy, and ignored his doublets!
After crossing over with the ace, there will still be two checkers left on the bar point. It is highly unlikely that Yellow will bear them both in with aces. More likely, he will waste pips with at least one of them. Wasting 2 pips now is not the worst that is possible.
Similary, with only a turn to wait, expecting to make an efficient crossover from the 12pt will require rolling a 6 in a hurry. Often that won't happen, so wastage will occur when two numbers are used to bring in a checker stationed there. Better is to waste 2 pips now, and hope to crossover from the outfield to a better landing spot in the outer board next turn.
Mike