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London Open Professionals Match Analysis

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 17 June 2014, at 2:11 a.m.

In Response To: London Open Professionals Match Analysis (Peter Bennet)

Good analysis by Raj. The following comment is mistaken in a couple ways though:

"The top end of my doubling window at this score (2-away 5-away) is 81% and I ought to be able to roughly work out that I am somewhere in the 70% area (in fact XG says I’m at 75%). A very disappointing missed double especially as I eventually won the game."

First, the top end of the window is ~76.5% since the trailer's tp in a gammonless position is 23.5%. I suspect Raj came up with 81% because passing gives the trailer 19% MWC.

Second, if the leader's top end of the doubling window was 81%(i.e. 2a-14a), it would seldom be correct to double a position with this much play left in it with 75% winning chances. The leader at 2a needs to be real close to the top end of the window before doubling unless the volatility is through the roof.

BTW, Raj says his 2.98 pr is just "fairly acceptable" to him?

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