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Chess, Cheating, Psychology, Analogy

Posted By: Havard Raddum
Date: Wednesday, 18 June 2014, at 7:30 a.m.

In Response To: Chess, Cheating, Psychology, Analogy (Bob Koca)

I watched some of the televised games when Magnus Carlsen was playing Vishy Anand last year, and I remember there was data from some chess program called Houdini on the side of the screen. The program showed its estimated probabilities of white winning, black winning and draw in every position that was reached. Based on that one can easily compute an equity for each player.

Whether Houdini's estimates are good estimates I don't know. I remember towards the end in one of the last games when Carlsen won with black that the program estimated something like 90% chance of a draw, and 5% to each side winning. Then Anand made a fatal error in his move, the computer could see a win for Carlsen, and the probabilities jumped to 98% for black winning, 1% for draw and 1% for white winning.

There is no random element in chess, so it's a bit fuzzy with the probabilities. How did the program know that there was a 5% probability that black would mess up and make an error losing the game?

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