This is the original position. After the best play, white leave a shot with 65 and 62 plus very awkward 52. Especially 65 is a nightmare. Instant downside is only 54 and 55, and 55 is a super good roll no matter what I play. I was afraid of getting hit on the mid point but it was an illusion. She wouldn't hit with 12, 13, 14 and would hit with 15 and 16 reluctantly as she leaves a return shot and I have a chance to seize the anchor on 24p.
So in short I risk very small and gain big.
           
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 101 | | 7 point match | pip: 145
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----BBCAB---bB---cBec-b-A-:0:0:1:61:0:2:0:7:4 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/7 6/5 | eq: -0.627 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.69% (G:4.42% B:0.11%)
67.31% (G:19.82% B:0.30%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 24/18 8/7 | eq: -0.775 (-0.148) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.05% (G:1.81% B:0.02%)
74.95% (G:4.24% B:0.05%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.12.201.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Bytheway, it is such a big blunder just because cube is coming no matter what I do.So the amount of error is exaggerate.
If cube is turned already, it is only .065 error. See below.
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 101 | | 7 point match | pip: 145
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----BBCAB---bB---cBec-b-A-:1:1:1:61:0:2:0:7:4 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/7 6/5 | eq: -0.336 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.90% (G:4.52% B:0.11%)
67.10% (G:20.52% B:0.33%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 24/18 8/7 | eq: -0.402 (-0.066) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.02% (G:1.81% B:0.02%)
74.98% (G:4.17% B:0.05%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.12.201.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Variant 1. I moved a spare on 6p to 3p. Now she has 54, 52 and 42 as a point on if I play 13/7 6/5. Specially swing on 52 is enormous. (it changes from awkward roll to one of the best rolls.) Also 61 won't be reluctant hit anymore. She can just make a 2p. Those changes make it a tie.
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 98 | | 7 point match | pip: 145
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----BBCAB---bB---cBdc-c-A-:0:0:1:61:0:2:0:7:4 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/7 6/5 | eq: -0.745 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.61% (G:4.18% B:0.12%)
68.39% (G:21.67% B:0.25%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 24/18 8/7 | eq: -0.750 (-0.005) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.53% (G:2.08% B:0.03%)
74.47% (G:4.63% B:0.06%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.12.201.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Variant2. Now her 62 won't be a blotty number anymore. Contrary to the original position, 24/18 8/7 is super clear play here. (Of course the amount of error is exaggerate with exactly the same reason)
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 101 | | 7 point match | pip: 145
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----BBCAB---bB---cBdcc--A-:0:0:1:61:0:2:0:7:4 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 24/18 8/7 | eq: -0.782 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 24.90% (G:1.77% B:0.03%)
75.10% (G:4.54% B:0.08%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/7 6/5 | eq: -0.954 (-0.172) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.38% (G:3.54% B:0.10%)
71.62% (G:23.87% B:0.37%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.12.201.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2