Here's a variant that partially explores whether the bot is playing 10/9 to avoid getting hit or to leave itself 5's and 6's to escape. If we eliminate Blue's blots then the bot doesn't seem too concerned about preserving a good escaping 6.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 124 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 211
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=------DbBB---aA-babcbbC-BA:1:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | 4-ply | Bar/23 6/5 | eq: -0.518 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.83% (G:3.09% B:0.20%)
63.17% (G:38.04% B:6.32%) | |
|
| 2. | 4-ply | Bar/23 24/23 | eq: -0.525 (-0.008) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.73% (G:3.76% B:0.21%)
64.27% (G:39.12% B:3.95%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
In the original position, suppose we play the bot's preferred bar/23 10/9. Now it's White's turn. Given a choice between completing the six-prime or hitting, the bot clearly prefers hitting. This suggests to me that it doesn't think that locking up the six-prime is a death knell; it prefers to take steps to hurt Blue's timing further, even at the risk of failing to close the six-prime. Note that with a roll of 41, even the single hit comes out far ahead of making the prime.
 
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 124 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 208
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-----ACbBB---aA-babcbbCAB-:1:1:-1:41:0:0:3:0:10 |
| White to play 41 |
| 1. | 4-ply | 12/11* 6/2* | eq: +0.695 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.18% (G:43.17% B:8.05%)
32.82% (G:2.12% B:0.07%) | |
|
| 2. | 4-ply | 18/14 12/11* | eq: +0.640 (-0.055) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.04% (G:41.50% B:7.33%)
33.96% (G:2.42% B:0.09%) | |
|
| 3. | 4-ply | 9/8 6/2* | eq: +0.592 (-0.103) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.65% (G:38.97% B:6.46%)
34.35% (G:2.99% B:0.09%) | |
|
| 4. | 4-ply | 12/8 6/5 | eq: +0.570 (-0.124) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.54% (G:38.89% B:4.65%)
34.46% (G:2.87% B:0.08%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 124 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 208
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-----ACbBB---aA-babcbbCAB-:1:1:-1:43:0:0:3:0:10 |
| White to play 43 |
| 1. | 4-ply | 18/11* | eq: +0.589 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.57% (G:40.23% B:7.19%)
35.43% (G:2.54% B:0.09%) | |
|
| 2. | 4-ply | 18/15 12/8 | eq: +0.560 (-0.029) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.73% (G:39.24% B:5.17%)
35.27% (G:2.79% B:0.07%) | |
|
| 3. | 4-ply | 18/15 6/2* | eq: +0.528 (-0.060) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.93% (G:37.81% B:6.30%)
36.07% (G:3.99% B:0.19%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10