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Lots of choices, down in race, possible risky attack

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Saturday, 21 June 2014, at 3:07 p.m.

In Response To: Lots of choices, down in race, possible risky attack (Bob Koca)

11/8 11/10 by a tiny bit over 8/4* Comparing 11/8 11/10 to plays that don't get hit on a 6 note that 6's mostly lose regardless, it removes some other shots, and gets a return on 66.

All the reasonable plays lead to thin doubles and huge takes. After 8/4* then a dance it is a strong double.

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 74 Unlimited Game Jacoby pip: 92 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=--BECBB-----a-b-ba-bbAabb-:0:0:-1:31:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.	Rollout1	11/10 11/8	eq: -0.2766
	Player: Opponent: 42.69% (G:1.32% B:0.03%) 57.31% (G:14.51% B:0.23%) Conf.: ±0.0037 (-0.2802...-0.2729) - [99.9%] Duration: 3 minutes 27 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/4*	eq: -0.2861 (-0.0095)
	Player: Opponent: 44.01% (G:2.38% B:0.07%) 55.99% (G:24.29% B:0.48%) Conf.: ±0.0051 (-0.2912...-0.2810) - [0.1%] Duration: 4 minutes 44 seconds
3.	Rollout2	9/8 9/6	eq: -0.3428 (-0.0663)
	Player: Opponent: 37.42% (G:1.06% B:0.02%) 62.58% (G:6.17% B:0.09%) Conf.: ±0.0075 (-0.3503...-0.3354) - [0.0%] Duration: 20.7 seconds
4.	Rollout2	11/8 3/2	eq: -0.3701 (-0.0935)
	Player: Opponent: 37.23% (G:0.90% B:0.02%) 62.77% (G:8.42% B:0.11%) Conf.: ±0.0099 (-0.3800...-0.3602) - [0.0%] Duration: 28.1 seconds
5.	Rollout2	13/12 11/8	eq: -0.4126 (-0.1360)
	Player: Opponent: 37.71% (G:1.32% B:0.03%) 62.29% (G:9.53% B:0.16%) Conf.: ±0.0082 (-0.4208...-0.4044) - [0.0%] Duration: 24.5 seconds
6.	Rollout2	13/10 11/10	eq: -0.4519 (-0.1753)
	Player: Opponent: 39.39% (G:1.33% B:0.04%) 60.61% (G:14.92% B:0.23%) Conf.: ±0.0101 (-0.4620...-0.4417) - [0.0%] Duration: 29.0 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 56132000 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 56132000 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 88 Unlimited Game Jacoby pip: 74 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BECBB-----a--abb-bbAabb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	57.617% (G:14.769% B:0.237%)	57.360% (G:14.216% B:0.207%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	42.383% (G:1.272% B:0.026%)	42.640% (G:1.276% B:0.025%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.2894	+0.5568
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.1390 (-0.1295)	±0.0074 (+0.1316..+0.1463)
Double/Take:	+0.2685	±0.0095 (+0.2590..+0.2780)
Double/Pass:	+1.0000 (+0.7315)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 56132000 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 48.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 88 Unlimited Game Jacoby pip: 78 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BECBB-----a-b-b--bbaabbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	55.903% (G:23.038% B:0.471%)	55.953% (G:24.325% B:0.468%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	44.097% (G:2.298% B:0.070%)	44.047% (G:2.444% B:0.074%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.3295	+0.6836
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.1161 (-0.1735)	±0.0061 (+0.1100..+0.1222)
Double/Take:	+0.2896	±0.0136 (+0.2760..+0.3032)
Double/Pass:	+1.0000 (+0.7104)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 56132000 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 57.7 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 78 Unlimited Game Jacoby pip: 88 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=--BECBB-----a-b-b--bbaabbA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	74.137% (G:2.242% B:0.040%)	74.307% (G:2.105% B:0.031%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	25.863% (G:3.951% B:0.091%)	25.693% (G:3.988% B:0.105%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.4651	+0.9331
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.6894 (-0.1224)
Double/Take:	+0.8118
Double/Pass:	+1.0000 (+0.1882)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Lots of choices, down in race, possible risky attack
  Bob Koca -- Friday, 20 June 2014, at 3:50 a.m.
  • Lots of choices, down in race, possible risky attack
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 20 June 2014, at 4:10 a.m.
  • Lots of choices, down in race, possible risky attack
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 20 June 2014, at 1:15 p.m.
  • Lots of choices, down in race, possible risky attack
    Keene -- Friday, 20 June 2014, at 2:03 p.m.
  • A couple of interesting variants (sans bot evaluations)
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 20 June 2014, at 2:22 p.m.
  • Lots of choices, down in race, possible risky attack
    David Presser -- Friday, 20 June 2014, at 5:09 p.m.
  • Lots of choices, down in race, possible risky attack
    gudgen -- Friday, 20 June 2014, at 10:12 p.m.
  • Lots of choices, down in race, possible risky attack
    Bob Koca -- Saturday, 21 June 2014, at 3:07 p.m.
    • Lots of choices, down in race, possible risky attack
      Fatboy -- Saturday, 21 June 2014, at 8:35 p.m.
    • Variants
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 22 June 2014, at 3:44 a.m.