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Mochy backgame "minimum pip trail to take", assumptions?

Posted By: Igor
Date: Tuesday, 24 June 2014, at 3:05 p.m.

In Response To: Mochy backgame "minimum pip trail to take", assumptions? (mochy)

There are many factors involved, of course, and in my study of 2-1 backgame I found that points of last take generally fall somewhere between 80 and 90 pips. But 87 pips looks to be a pretty good overall estimate.

Below are positions with points of last take.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 166
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 81
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bbBCCCBB----a---bbbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.57% (G:32.32% B:5.11%) 64.44% (G:32.04% B:5.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.43% (G:1.51% B:0.06%) 35.56% (G:1.47% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities +0.650 +1.290
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.900 (-0.063)±0.011 (+0.889..+0.910)
Double/Take:+0.963±0.018 (+0.945..+0.980)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.037)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24617919
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 01 minute

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 174
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 87
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bbBBBCCC------abbbbb-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.53% (G:31.50% B:4.86%) 64.97% (G:31.48% B:4.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.47% (G:1.63% B:0.07%) 35.03% (G:1.52% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities +0.637 +1.295
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.902 (-0.083)±0.005 (+0.896..+0.907)
Double/Take:+0.984±0.008 (+0.976..+0.992)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.016)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24617919
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 15 hours 07 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 175
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 90
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bbBBBCBBB----a-bbbbb-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.49% (G:31.87% B:4.91%) 64.79% (G:31.84% B:4.77%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.51% (G:1.55% B:0.06%) 35.21% (G:1.53% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities +0.641 +1.292
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.906 (-0.070)±0.007 (+0.899..+0.914)
Double/Take:+0.976±0.013 (+0.963..+0.989)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.024)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81232284
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 hours 04 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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