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White rolls the bad 61... Cube Action Problems
Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 24 June 2014, at 3:50 p.m.
In Response To: White rolls the bad 61... Cube Action Problems (Timothy Chow)
Is there any chance that XG's maximum cube value of 1024 might affect the validity of these rollouts?
No, only neglibly. Even IF both redouble and take are correct at every stage (assuming my hasty math is right), the chance of White being unable to double to 2048 is (4/9)^4 * (1/18)^5, and the chance of Blue being unable to double to 2048 is (4/9)^5 * (1/18)^5 [Okay, by excluding the final step I've given away that White should not redouble the bearoff position.] So, again assuming that redouble/take is proper throughout, then: In the 1b rollout, White loses 1/24000 of her equity cost adjusted to a redoubledenied 2cube minus 1/52000 of Blue's cost on a redoubledenied 2cube; and in the 1d rollout, White loses 1/52000 of her cost on a redoubledenied 2cube.
Nack

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