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Bearing In Lesson--eye opener for most

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 26 June 2014, at 5:47 p.m.

In Response To: Bearing In Lesson--eye opener for most (Taper_Mike)

Taper_Mike wrote:

We have seen time and time again that there is much more variance in a 1k rollout that there is in an XGR++ eval … I expect that the margins given by XGR++ are closer to what you will see in a long rollout than those produced by your 1k affair.

I wonder if your experience is skewed by excessive exposure to early-game rollouts. The advantage of a full rollout is that it increases the playing strength, and reduces the chances of systematic errors. For most early-game positions, playing strength doesn't seem to matter much if there is no immediate misplay. That's not true of all positions, and trap-play positions would be on my short list of positions where playing strength can make a difference. So while your prediction might be right in this particular case, I wouldn't regard it as confirmation of your general hypothesis, but merely an indication that playing strength actually doesn't matter that much in this particular position.

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