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63S52 – Unlimited Games – 3ply XG2 Rollout
Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 3 July 2014, at 12:24 a.m.
In Response To: OLM 20140702A The Prime Factors (Bob Koca)
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 167
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=aEaCdEaceB:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 52
1. Rollout^{1} 24/22 13/8 eq: 0.2133
Player:
Opponent:44.69% (G:10.78% B:0.39%)
55.31% (G:13.73% B:0.54%)Conf.: ±0.0021 (0.2154...0.2112)  [90.1%]
Duration: 9 hours 45 minutes2. Rollout^{1} 24/22 6/1* eq: 0.2154 (0.0020)
Player:
Opponent:44.38% (G:11.95% B:0.40%)
55.62% (G:14.04% B:0.68%)Conf.: ±0.0023 (0.2177...0.2131)  [9.9%]
Duration: 11 hours 23 minutes3. Rollout^{2} 13/8 6/4 eq: 0.2562 (0.0429)
Player:
Opponent:43.85% (G:10.91% B:0.43%)
56.15% (G:15.15% B:0.77%)Conf.: ±0.0055 (0.2617...0.2507)  [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 52 minutes^{1} 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36871618
Moves and cube decisions: 3ply
^{2} 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36871618
Moves and cube decisions: 3ply
Rollout by David Rockwell
2013Feb19
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.xx
63S52dr.xgp
[S X2 $43] "<62*10eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
63S52
I don't see why there would be a big difference if it is 62S or 63S. Maybe 53 being duplicated after 63S 52S is a small factor.Right. If the opponent wants to POH with 63S52S53, then he must forego making his 5pt or 10pt. Since 53 is already a good roll for him, it does not cost much to give him the POH play.
The opponent’s builder on his 10pt is not nearly as strong as one on his 9pt would be. 64, 53, and 31 were already pointmaking rolls for him. After his opening 63S, the first two of them only make a better point for him.
The checker you split out to the 22pt is not within direct range of the opponent’s builder in the outer board, so a tempo hit on the 1pt is less necessary than with 64S52X. Admittedly, the tempo hit has the advantage of taking away half a roll from your opponent, and also the 6 he has to make an anchor. But it has the disadvantage of placing a checker on the 1pt, and giving your opponent 11 chances to add 24 pips to his racing lead.
At the end of the day, these add up to enough equity to make splitting competitive with hitandsplit. David Rockwell’s long rollout has them tied.
63S52 [S X2 $43] "<62*10
Mike

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