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last roll situation

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 7 July 2014, at 4:41 p.m.

In Response To: last roll situation (scotty)

Believe it or not, 35 or so years ago, this exact situation came up OTB and I knew to cube and won the match and then won a beer as well on the bet with my opp who was one of the few players then capable of understanding the math and the situation and the obvious fact that some points in a match were worth more than other points.

I had made my own MET by then but let him derive what was relevant (he taught math) after asking how often did he think that someone can win a gammon. He replied probably about 10% and soon I had my beer.

BTW, that 10% figure was from an offhand comment by Magriel when someone asked him, but he was far from sure. My early MET had -2-1C as 31% since I felt that the trailer had many checker play advantages since he couldn't get G'd and since the leader has to fear the G like the plague.

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