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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20140707B The Dilly Builders
Posted By: Keene In Response To: OLM 20140707B The Dilly Builders (Jason Lee)
Date: Monday, 7 July 2014, at 7:58 p.m.
Once again, I find myself standing alone with my own vote, and a bunch of people all happily saying 'oh no, not me, I wouldnt do that'. So, in the face of my imminent error, let me elucidate further on why I think its worthwhile. You dont need to answer or agree, all I ask is that you give my logic some consideration.
PRAT: Position, Race & Threat. 2/3 = D, 1/3 = T. We have a better position, and we have some threats - yes they are minor, and pretty thin.
Positional advantage: How do we play it out? We maybe keep the anchor and wait for white to keep rolling stupid numbers that further strand their rear checkers (stuck behind a psuedo 5 prime), thus stretching their position, and hopefully blotting in front of our anchor. OR, we hit - yes its thin, but thats a 20pip swing minimum in our favor. OR, we roll a monster set, and run away, while white is forced to stay back to try and get a shot from their anchor. OR, we roll average, white rolls average, and the position eventually condenses down, with us running away, with their crappy board they can only hit us with risk, meanwhile keeping their stuck checkers back, frozen as it were.
Do I think its a big cube? For sure, no. But, its -11,-11, right at the beginning of the match, and quite frankly, you may get some passes - who knows... Also, you should be willing to take more risks while there is less at stake.
Also, if we do cube, you know, just because it may be wrong doesnt mean that we dont have an advantage, it doesnt mean we are going to lose.
Finally, has XG taught you anything about the cost of missed doubles? Why is my PR for this game 47.8? Oh, I missed 10 doubles in a row.. I get it now. So, even if its not a double here, then its going to be relatively small, and for sure, I will have no more cube mistakes until white decides to ship back a 4 cube.
There it is, there is all my flawed logic. Agree or not, this is why I say double now. Surely, this is a better logic stream than "its too early to double, I wait". Maybe not. I dont know, and I dont care.
What I do know is that this is an instructional OLM, and this, for me, right or wrong is a better learning opportunity for others, for me, for anyone than simply eyeballing it and saying 'too early, I wait'. Lets also not forget that you have the pipcount right in front of you here, and sometimes, a cubing decision is not made purely on a pipcount.
K
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