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Cube action problems (after 61), ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 15 July 2014, at 4:00 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action problems (after 61) (Nack Ballard)

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 152 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 143 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EBC---eC---aBca-ba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

53P-66B-61A [N 664-42] "<=5

 Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 65.97% (G:18.40% B:1.10%) 65.99% (G:18.71% B:1.20%) Opponent Winning Chances: 34.03% (G:8.27% B:0.27%) 34.01% (G:8.52% B:0.28%) Cubeless Equities +0.429 +0.862 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.664 ±0.008 (+0.656..+0.672) Double/Take: +0.622 (-0.042) ±0.009 (+0.612..+0.631) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.336) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.1% Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 90989291Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 3 hours 45 minutes

The margin to NOT double the 53P position (see rollout above) is about the same as the margin to double the 64 positions (see side-by-side rollouts below). Immediately below is a nacubrac summary.

..........53P-66B-61A [N 664-42] "<=5
........64P-66B-61A [D 841-41] "<=5
........64P-66B-61a .[D 855-48] "<=5

Nactation tutorialexplanation of nacbracsnacubracs (nacbracs for cube actions)

[Computers do not distinguish between upper and lower case for file names. So, while I use "a" here to describe White's last move (8/1) in the third position, I use "1" (for 1pt) in my file name (i.e., 64P-66B-611-C).]

Based on the cube action results, the equities of White's A and a moves appears to be very close, with 6/5 narrowly beating 2/1 (the former gives Blue a slightly less strong double).

Nack

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 150 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 143 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EBC---eC---aBca--c--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

64P-66B-61A [D 841-41] "<=5

 Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 69.58% (G:18.72% B:1.04%) 69.55% (G:19.92% B:1.16%) Opponent Winning Chances: 30.42% (G:6.66% B:0.18%) 30.45% (G:6.82% B:0.19%) Cubeless Equities +0.521 +1.063 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.800 (-0.041) ±0.007 (+0.793..+0.807) Double/Take: +0.841 ±0.009 (+0.832..+0.850) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.159) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 90989291Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 3 hours 39 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 150 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 143 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EBC---eC---aBd---ba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

64P-66B-61a [D 855-48] "<=5

 Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 69.75% (G:19.72% B:1.13%) 69.82% (G:20.28% B:1.25%) Opponent Winning Chances: 30.25% (G:7.08% B:0.16%) 30.18% (G:7.30% B:0.16%) Cubeless Equities +0.531 +1.074 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.807 (-0.048) ±0.006 (+0.801..+0.814) Double/Take: +0.855 ±0.008 (+0.847..+0.863) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.145) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 90989291Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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