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51S-44B-41U-44 (variant), Rollout and analysis

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 17 July 2014, at 4:17 a.m.

In Response To: Variants: 43Z-11P-42P-51S-43@-41U-44, and 51S-44B-41U-44 (Nack Ballard)

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 152
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 151
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a----EaCB--dC---d-cBb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10

43Z-11P-42P-51S-43@-41U-44
[C A38 E43 O.74 P90 J116] "<=3
Brown has two checkers on her 4pt


1.Rollout120/16(2) 9/5(2)eq: +0,480
Player:
Opponent:
62,38% (G:12,05% B:0,34%)
37,62% (G:5,88% B:0,21%)
Conf.: 0,008 (+0,473...+0,488) - [100,0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout19/5(2) 6/2(2)eq: +0,443 (-0,038)
Player:
Opponent:
59,92% (G:16,34% B:0,31%)
40,08% (G:5,86% B:0,23%)
Conf.: 0,007 (+0,435...+0,450) - [0,0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 40 seconds
3.Rollout120/16(2) 6/2(2)eq: +0,437 (-0,043)
Player:
Opponent:
61,48% (G:10,87% B:0,32%)
38,52% (G:6,40% B:0,24%)
Conf.: 0,007 (+0,430...+0,445) - [0,0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 52 seconds
4.Rollout113/5 9/5(2)eq: +0,406 (-0,074)
Player:
Opponent:
59,51% (G:15,79% B:0,28%)
40,49% (G:5,62% B:0,20%)
Conf.: 0,007 (+0,399...+0,414) - [0,0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 02 seconds
5.Rollout19/1*(2) eq: +0,390 (-0,090)
Player:
Opponent:
58,07% (G:19,88% B:0,30%)
41,93% (G:6,74% B:0,29%)
Conf.: 0,007 (+0,383...+0,398) - [0,0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 30 seconds
6.XG Roller++9/5(2) 8/4(2)eq: +0,364 (-0,116)
Player:
Opponent:
57,16% (G:16,34% B:0,24%)
42,84% (G:5,66% B:0,18%)
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79144369
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 154
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 151
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a----EaCB--dC---d-dBa----:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10

51S-44B-52E-44
[P A39 C56 J70 O.94] "<=1
Brown has one checker on her 4pt


1.Rollout19/1*(2) eq: +0.577
Player:
Opponent:
61.60% (G:23.33% B:0.43%)
38.40% (G:6.57% B:0.28%)
Conf.: 0.016 (+0.562...+0.593) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout19/5(2) 6/2(2)eq: +0.538 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
61.56% (G:18.67% B:0.39%)
38.44% (G:5.86% B:0.23%)
Conf.: 0.016 (+0.522...+0.554) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 54 seconds
3.Rollout120/16(2) 9/5(2)eq: +0.521 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
63.69% (G:12.58% B:0.35%)
36.31% (G:5.57% B:0.21%)
Conf.: 0.014 (+0.507...+0.536) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 50 seconds
4.Rollout19/5(2) 8/4(2)eq: +0.507 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
60.77% (G:18.80% B:0.41%)
39.23% (G:5.70% B:0.21%)
Conf.: 0.012 (+0.495...+0.520) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 35 seconds
5.Rollout113/5 9/5(2)eq: +0.483 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
60.85% (G:17.42% B:0.36%)
39.15% (G:5.76% B:0.22%)
Conf.: 0.013 (+0.470...+0.496) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 28 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 156
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 151
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a----EaCB--dC---d-eB-----:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10

51S-44B-41U-44
[C A11 P21 E43 O.45 J96] "<=15*10 5
Brown has zero checkers on her 4pt


1.Rollout120/16(2) 9/5(2)eq: +0.660
Player:
Opponent:
66.02% (G:13.64% B:0.45%)
33.98% (G:4.95% B:0.18%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.657...+0.664) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 52 minutes
2.Rollout19/5(2) 6/2(2)eq: +0.649 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
64.06% (G:19.73% B:0.38%)
35.94% (G:5.24% B:0.19%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.646...+0.653) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 30 minutes
3.Rollout29/1*(2) eq: +0.639 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
63.44% (G:23.11% B:0.34%)
36.56% (G:5.80% B:0.24%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.634...+0.645) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 06 minutes
4.Rollout320/16(2) 6/2(2)eq: +0.618 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
65.87% (G:11.91% B:0.34%)
34.13% (G:5.04% B:0.17%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.611...+0.625) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes
5.Rollout313/5 9/5(2)eq: +0.615 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
63.35% (G:18.63% B:0.37%)
36.65% (G:5.17% B:0.17%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.609...+0.622) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
6.Rollout39/5(2) 8/4(2)eq: +0.564 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
62.11% (G:19.76% B:0.39%)
37.89% (G:5.38% B:0.19%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.558...+0.571) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90989291
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90989291
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90989291
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above (side by side by side, if you widen your window enough) are the rollouts of the three positions: Wolfgang's variant, John's original position, and my "moderate" variant. Below is a nacbracs summary:

........Two on 4pt. [C A38 E43 O.74 P90 J116] "<=3
........One on 4pt.. [P A39 C56 J70 O.94] "<=1
........Zero on 4pt. [C A11 P21 E43 O.45 J96] "<=15*10 5

Examining the nacbracs, a key highlight is the performance of P. Let's compare it to C and then to A:

  • White's C/P margin is +.090 versus two checkers on (Brown's) 4pt, -.056 vs one on 4pt, and in between (-.021) vs zero on 4pt.
  • White's A/P margin is +.052 vs two on 4pt, -.039 vs one on 4pt, and in between (+.010) vs zero on 4pt.

In summary for this trio, P is a close decision when White's 4pt is vacant. Its extreme weak and strong cases arise when Brown's 4pt is (a) made or (b) slotted. Others' analysis can be found elsewhere in this thread. (Mine is here and especially here.)

Nack

Key: A = Attack (9/5(2) 6/2(2)), C = Cross (20/16(2) 9/5(2)), E = Each (20/16(2) 6/2(2)), J = Jump (9/5(2) 8/4(2)), O.= Outer 1:3 (13/5 9/5(3)), P = Point (9/5*(2)).

Nactation tutorial explanation of nacbracs

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