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51S-44B-41U-44 (variant), Rollout and analysis

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 17 July 2014, at 4:17 a.m.

In Response To: Variants: 43Z-11P-42P-51S-43@-41U-44, and 51S-44B-41U-44 (Nack Ballard)

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 152 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 151 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-a----EaCB--dC---d-cBb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
43Z-11P-42P-51S-43@-41U-44 [C A38 E43 O.74 P90 J116] "<=3 Brown has two checkers on her 4pt

1.	Rollout1	20/16(2) 9/5(2)	eq: +0,480
	Player: Opponent: 62,38% (G:12,05% B:0,34%) 37,62% (G:5,88% B:0,21%) Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,473...+0,488) - [100,0%] Duration: 38 minutes 04 seconds
2.	Rollout1	9/5(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0,443 (-0,038)
	Player: Opponent: 59,92% (G:16,34% B:0,31%) 40,08% (G:5,86% B:0,23%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,435...+0,450) - [0,0%] Duration: 33 minutes 40 seconds
3.	Rollout1	20/16(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0,437 (-0,043)
	Player: Opponent: 61,48% (G:10,87% B:0,32%) 38,52% (G:6,40% B:0,24%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,430...+0,445) - [0,0%] Duration: 41 minutes 52 seconds
4.	Rollout1	13/5 9/5(2)	eq: +0,406 (-0,074)
	Player: Opponent: 59,51% (G:15,79% B:0,28%) 40,49% (G:5,62% B:0,20%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,399...+0,414) - [0,0%] Duration: 32 minutes 02 seconds
5.	Rollout1	9/1*(2)	eq: +0,390 (-0,090)
	Player: Opponent: 58,07% (G:19,88% B:0,30%) 41,93% (G:6,74% B:0,29%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,383...+0,398) - [0,0%] Duration: 33 minutes 30 seconds
6.	XG Roller++	9/5(2) 8/4(2)	eq: +0,364 (-0,116)
	Player: Opponent: 57,16% (G:16,34% B:0,24%) 42,84% (G:5,66% B:0,18%)
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 79144369 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 154 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 151 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-a----EaCB--dC---d-dBa----:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
51S-44B-52E-44 [P A39 C56 J70 O.94] "<=1 Brown has one checker on her 4pt

1.	Rollout1	9/1*(2)	eq: +0.577
	Player: Opponent: 61.60% (G:23.33% B:0.43%) 38.40% (G:6.57% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.562...+0.593) - [100.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 33 seconds
2.	Rollout1	9/5(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0.538 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 61.56% (G:18.67% B:0.39%) 38.44% (G:5.86% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.522...+0.554) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 54 seconds
3.	Rollout1	20/16(2) 9/5(2)	eq: +0.521 (-0.056)
	Player: Opponent: 63.69% (G:12.58% B:0.35%) 36.31% (G:5.57% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.507...+0.536) - [0.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 50 seconds
4.	Rollout1	9/5(2) 8/4(2)	eq: +0.507 (-0.070)
	Player: Opponent: 60.77% (G:18.80% B:0.41%) 39.23% (G:5.70% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.495...+0.520) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 35 seconds
5.	Rollout1	13/5 9/5(2)	eq: +0.483 (-0.094)
	Player: Opponent: 60.85% (G:17.42% B:0.36%) 39.15% (G:5.76% B:0.22%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.470...+0.496) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 28 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 151 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-a----EaCB--dC---d-eB-----:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
51S-44B-41U-44 [C A11 P21 E43 O.45 J96] "<=15*10 5 Brown has zero checkers on her 4pt

1.	Rollout1	20/16(2) 9/5(2)	eq: +0.660
	Player: Opponent: 66.02% (G:13.64% B:0.45%) 33.98% (G:4.95% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.657...+0.664) - [100.0%] Duration: 8 hours 52 minutes
2.	Rollout1	9/5(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0.649 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 64.06% (G:19.73% B:0.38%) 35.94% (G:5.24% B:0.19%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.646...+0.653) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 hours 30 minutes
3.	Rollout2	9/1*(2)	eq: +0.639 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 63.44% (G:23.11% B:0.34%) 36.56% (G:5.80% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.634...+0.645) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 06 minutes
4.	Rollout3	20/16(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0.618 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 65.87% (G:11.91% B:0.34%) 34.13% (G:5.04% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.611...+0.625) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes
5.	Rollout3	13/5 9/5(2)	eq: +0.615 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 63.35% (G:18.63% B:0.37%) 36.65% (G:5.17% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.609...+0.622) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
6.	Rollout3	9/5(2) 8/4(2)	eq: +0.564 (-0.096)
	Player: Opponent: 62.11% (G:19.76% B:0.39%) 37.89% (G:5.38% B:0.19%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.558...+0.571) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 90989291 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 90989291 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 90989291 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above (side by side by side, if you widen your window enough) are the rollouts of the three positions: Wolfgang's variant, John's original position, and my "moderate" variant. Below is a nacbracs summary:

........Two on 4pt. [C A38 E43 O.74 P90 J116] "<=3
........One on 4pt.. [P A39 C56 J70 O.94] "<=1
........Zero on 4pt. [C A11 P21 E43 O.45 J96] "<=15*10 5

Examining the nacbracs, a key highlight is the performance of P. Let's compare it to C and then to A:

• White's C/P margin is +.090 versus two checkers on (Brown's) 4pt, -.056 vs one on 4pt, and in between (-.021) vs zero on 4pt.
• White's A/P margin is +.052 vs two on 4pt, -.039 vs one on 4pt, and in between (+.010) vs zero on 4pt.

In summary for this trio, P is a close decision when White's 4pt is vacant. Its extreme weak and strong cases arise when Brown's 4pt is (a) made or (b) slotted. Others' analysis can be found elsewhere in this thread. (Mine is here and especially here.)

Nack

Key: A = Attack (9/5(2) 6/2(2)), C = Cross (20/16(2) 9/5(2)), E = Each (20/16(2) 6/2(2)), J = Jump (9/5(2) 8/4(2)), O.= Outer 1:3 (13/5 9/5(3)), P = Point (9/5*(2)).

Nactation tutorial • explanation of nacbracs

Messages In This Thread

• 51S-44B-52S-44?
  John O'Hagan -- Friday, 11 July 2014, at 3:52 p.m.
  • 51S-44B-52E-44?
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Friday, 11 July 2014, at 4:22 p.m.
    • 51S-44B-52E-44?
      John O'Hagan -- Friday, 11 July 2014, at 4:27 p.m.
  • 51S-44B-52S-44?
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 11 July 2014, at 5:54 p.m.
  • 51S-44B-52E-44
    Nack Ballard -- Friday, 11 July 2014, at 5:58 p.m.
  • 51S-44B-52S-44?
    Keene -- Friday, 11 July 2014, at 7:14 p.m.
  • 51S-44E-52S-44 RO
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 12 July 2014, at 5:19 p.m.
    • 51S-44E-52S-44 RO
      Dmitriy Obukhov -- Saturday, 12 July 2014, at 5:51 p.m.
      • Related problem
        Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 12 July 2014, at 9:25 p.m.
        • Related problem
          Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 12 July 2014, at 11:45 p.m.
          • Related problem
            John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 13 July 2014, at 12:44 a.m.
            • Related problem
              Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 13 July 2014, at 1:49 a.m.
        • Related problem
          Dmitriy Obukhov -- Sunday, 13 July 2014, at 7:26 a.m.
    • 51S-44B-52E-44 – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
      Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 13 July 2014, at 9:42 p.m.
      • Correction – Rollout uses Jacoby and Beavers
        Taper_Mike -- Monday, 14 July 2014, at 6:24 a.m.
        • Correcting Nactation
          Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 9 October 2014, at 6:34 a.m.
  • Variation of the original position
    Wolfgang -- Sunday, 13 July 2014, at 2:04 p.m.
    • Variants: 43Z-11P-42P-51S-43@-41U-44, and 51S-44B-41U-44
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 13 July 2014, at 5:06 p.m.
      • P.S.
        Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 13 July 2014, at 5:18 p.m.
      • Variants: 43Z-11P-42P-51S-43@-41U-44, and 51S-44B-41U-44
        Wolfgang -- Sunday, 13 July 2014, at 8:19 p.m.
      • Variants: 43Z-11P-42P-51S-43@-41U-44, and 51S-44B-41U-44
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 14 July 2014, at 11:18 p.m.
      • 51S-44B-41U-44 (variant), Rollout and analysis
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 17 July 2014, at 4:17 a.m.
    • Rollout of the variation 6->4
      Wolfgang -- Monday, 14 July 2014, at 10:10 p.m.