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51S44B41U44 (variant), Rollout and analysis
Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 17 July 2014, at 4:17 a.m.
In Response To: Variants: 43Z11P42P51S43@41U44, and 51S44B41U44 (Nack Ballard)
is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 152Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 151
score: 0
is Player 1XGID=aEaCBdCdcBb:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10 43Z11P42P51S43@41U44
[C A38 E43 O.74 P90 J116] "<=3
Brown has two checkers on her 4pt
1. Rollout^{1} 20/16(2) 9/5(2) eq: +0,480
Player:
Opponent:62,38% (G:12,05% B:0,34%)
37,62% (G:5,88% B:0,21%)Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,473...+0,488)  [100,0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 04 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 9/5(2) 6/2(2) eq: +0,443 (0,038)
Player:
Opponent:59,92% (G:16,34% B:0,31%)
40,08% (G:5,86% B:0,23%)Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,435...+0,450)  [0,0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 40 seconds3. Rollout^{1} 20/16(2) 6/2(2) eq: +0,437 (0,043)
Player:
Opponent:61,48% (G:10,87% B:0,32%)
38,52% (G:6,40% B:0,24%)Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,430...+0,445)  [0,0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 52 seconds4. Rollout^{1} 13/5 9/5(2) eq: +0,406 (0,074)
Player:
Opponent:59,51% (G:15,79% B:0,28%)
40,49% (G:5,62% B:0,20%)Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,399...+0,414)  [0,0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 02 seconds5. Rollout^{1} 9/1*(2) eq: +0,390 (0,090)
Player:
Opponent:58,07% (G:19,88% B:0,30%)
41,93% (G:6,74% B:0,29%)Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,383...+0,398)  [0,0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 30 seconds6. XG Roller++ 9/5(2) 8/4(2) eq: +0,364 (0,116)
Player:
Opponent:57,16% (G:16,34% B:0,24%)
42,84% (G:5,66% B:0,18%)^{1} 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79144369
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 154Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 151
score: 0
is Player 1XGID=aEaCBdCddBa:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10 51S44B52E44
[P A39 C56 J70 O.94] "<=1
Brown has one checker on her 4pt
1. Rollout^{1} 9/1*(2) eq: +0.577
Player:
Opponent:61.60% (G:23.33% B:0.43%)
38.40% (G:6.57% B:0.28%)Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.562...+0.593)  [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 33 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 9/5(2) 6/2(2) eq: +0.538 (0.039)
Player:
Opponent:61.56% (G:18.67% B:0.39%)
38.44% (G:5.86% B:0.23%)Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.522...+0.554)  [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 54 seconds3. Rollout^{1} 20/16(2) 9/5(2) eq: +0.521 (0.056)
Player:
Opponent:63.69% (G:12.58% B:0.35%)
36.31% (G:5.57% B:0.21%)Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.507...+0.536)  [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 50 seconds4. Rollout^{1} 9/5(2) 8/4(2) eq: +0.507 (0.070)
Player:
Opponent:60.77% (G:18.80% B:0.41%)
39.23% (G:5.70% B:0.21%)Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.495...+0.520)  [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 35 seconds5. Rollout^{1} 13/5 9/5(2) eq: +0.483 (0.094)
Player:
Opponent:60.85% (G:17.42% B:0.36%)
39.15% (G:5.76% B:0.22%)Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.470...+0.496)  [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 28 seconds^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 156Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 151
score: 0
is Player 1XGID=aEaCBdCdeB:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10 51S44B41U44
[C A11 P21 E43 O.45 J96] "<=15*10 5
Brown has zero checkers on her 4pt
1. Rollout^{1} 20/16(2) 9/5(2) eq: +0.660
Player:
Opponent:66.02% (G:13.64% B:0.45%)
33.98% (G:4.95% B:0.18%)Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.657...+0.664)  [100.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 52 minutes2. Rollout^{1} 9/5(2) 6/2(2) eq: +0.649 (0.011)
Player:
Opponent:64.06% (G:19.73% B:0.38%)
35.94% (G:5.24% B:0.19%)Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.646...+0.653)  [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 30 minutes3. Rollout^{2} 9/1*(2) eq: +0.639 (0.021)
Player:
Opponent:63.44% (G:23.11% B:0.34%)
36.56% (G:5.80% B:0.24%)Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.634...+0.645)  [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 06 minutes4. Rollout^{3} 20/16(2) 6/2(2) eq: +0.618 (0.043)
Player:
Opponent:65.87% (G:11.91% B:0.34%)
34.13% (G:5.04% B:0.17%)Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.611...+0.625)  [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes5. Rollout^{3} 13/5 9/5(2) eq: +0.615 (0.045)
Player:
Opponent:63.35% (G:18.63% B:0.37%)
36.65% (G:5.17% B:0.17%)Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.609...+0.622)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes6. Rollout^{3} 9/5(2) 8/4(2) eq: +0.564 (0.096)
Player:
Opponent:62.11% (G:19.76% B:0.39%)
37.89% (G:5.38% B:0.19%)Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.558...+0.571)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes^{1} 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90989291
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90989291
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{3} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90989291
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerAbove (side by side by side, if you widen your window enough) are the rollouts of the three positions: Wolfgang's variant, John's original position, and my "moderate" variant. Below is a nacbracs summary:
........Two on 4pt. [C A38 E43 O.74 P90 J116] "<=3
........One on 4pt.. [P A39 C56 J70 O.94] "<=1
........Zero on 4pt. [C A11 P21 E43 O.45 J96] "<=15*10 5Examining the nacbracs, a key highlight is the performance of P. Let's compare it to C and then to A:
 White's C/P margin is +.090 versus two checkers on (Brown's) 4pt, .056 vs one on 4pt, and in between (.021) vs zero on 4pt.
 White's A/P margin is +.052 vs two on 4pt, .039 vs one on 4pt, and in between (+.010) vs zero on 4pt.
In summary for this trio, P is a close decision when White's 4pt is vacant. Its extreme weak and strong cases arise when Brown's 4pt is (a) made or (b) slotted. Others' analysis can be found elsewhere in this thread. (Mine is here and especially here.)
Nack
Key: A = Attack (9/5(2) 6/2(2)), C = Cross (20/16(2) 9/5(2)), E = Each (20/16(2) 6/2(2)), J = Jump (9/5(2) 8/4(2)), O.= Outer 1:3 (13/5 9/5(3)), P = Point (9/5*(2)).
Nactation tutorial • explanation of nacbracs

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