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62S-31P-61  62S-42P-61  62S-53P-61  3-ply XG2 Rollouts

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Friday, 18 July 2014, at 8:38 a.m.

In Response To: Interesting Variants: 62S-31P-61  62S-42P-61  62S-53P-61 (Taper_Mike)

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 163 Unlimited Game pip: 159 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout124/18 11/10eq: +0.1621
 Player:Opponent: 54.07% (G:11.56% B:0.36%)45.93% (G:9.69% B:0.36%) Conf.: ±0.0067 (+0.1554...+0.1688) - [100.0%]Duration: 39 minutes 52 seconds
2.Rollout111/5 6/5eq: +0.1076 (-0.0545)
 Player:Opponent: 52.69% (G:15.89% B:0.90%)47.31% (G:14.74% B:0.58%) Conf.: ±0.0075 (+0.1001...+0.1150) - [0.0%]Duration: 37 minutes 04 seconds

1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35892912
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

 Rollout by Taper_Mike 2014-Jul-16 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 62S-31P-61-n-tm.xgp n[B P55] "<=5 n[B P50] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

### Anchor or Point?

Igor pretty much nailed these.

When your opponent has made his 5pt, making yours in response does not mean you are tied. If you make your 5pt in this position, your opponent will have 1, 5, and 6 as hitting numbers. That surrenders too much initiative. In addition, making an advanced anchor takes a big step in countering your opponents priming game.

When your opponent makes his 3pt rather than his 5pt, then he will leave a double gap in the process. The fact that his priming game is weaker means your urgency to defend against it is correspondingly less. Making your 5pt no longer means that you will be tied in the priming battle. It means you will be ahead.

The tipping point comes when your opponent owns his 4pt. Then the rollout gives a slight edge to anchoring, but the margin is only 7 millipoints of equity. On the Ballard/Weaver error scale, thats a tie.

Mike

62S-31P-61 — Unlimited Games
XG 2.03 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 80601993 +165.7 [B P63 E94] "<=5 Taper_Mike
GnuBg 1.02 2-ply Trunc 719384874 +158.053 n[B P56] '/0.360t Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 35892912 +162.1 n[B P55] "<=5 Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] +146.9 n[B P50] "&e Taper_Mike

Key: B = Both [24/18, 11/10], E = Each [24/18, 6/5], P = Point [11/5, 6/5]

## 62S-42P-61

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 161 Unlimited Game pip: 159 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout124/18 11/10eq: +0.1664
 Player:Opponent: 54.12% (G:12.09% B:0.40%)45.88% (G:10.07% B:0.36%) Conf.: ±0.0027 (+0.1637...+0.1691) - [100.0%]Duration: 4 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout111/5 6/5eq: +0.1595 (-0.0069)
 Player:Opponent: 53.99% (G:16.32% B:0.96%)46.01% (G:14.59% B:0.55%) Conf.: ±0.0031 (+0.1564...+0.1625) - [0.0%]Duration: 3 hours 49 minutes

1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35892912
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

 Rollout by Taper_Mike 2014-Jul-17 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 62S-42P-61-n-tm.xgp n[B P7] "<=31 n[B P4] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

62S-42P-61 — Unlimited Games
GnuBg 1.02 2-ply Trunc 719384874 +155.731 n[B P6] '/0.360t Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 35892912 +166.4 n[B P7] "<=31 Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] +153.6 n[B P4] "&e Taper_Mike

Key: B = Both [24/18, 11/10], P = Point [11/5, 6/5]

## 62S-53P-61

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 Unlimited Game pip: 159 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout111/5 6/5eq: +0.2516
 Player:Opponent: 56.19% (G:17.61% B:1.06%)43.81% (G:13.95% B:0.53%) Conf.: ±0.0073 (+0.2443...+0.2589) - [100.0%]Duration: 33 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout124/18 11/10eq: +0.1882 (-0.0633)
 Player:Opponent: 54.60% (G:12.87% B:0.43%)45.40% (G:10.42% B:0.37%) Conf.: ±0.0068 (+0.1815...+0.1950) - [0.0%]Duration: 34 minutes 13 seconds

1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7555698
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

 Rollout by Taper_Mike 2013-Nov-28 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 62S-53P-61-n-tm.xgp n[P B63] "<=5 n[P B81] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

62S-53P-61 — Unlimited Games
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply Trunc 732535984 +221.182 n[P B93] /0.360t Taper_Mike
GnuBg 1.02 2-ply Trunc 719881831 +246.219 n[P B71] '/0.360t Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 7555698 +251.6 n[P B63] "<=5 Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] +246.5 n[P B81] "&e Taper_Mike

Key: B = Both [24/18, 11/10], P = Point [11/5, 6/5]

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