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Cube action?

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Saturday, 19 July 2014, at 6:09 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action? (John O'Hagan)

There are 2 gin rolls of 66 and 55. 33 is great. 22 is very good. and 11 is good.

Rolls of 41 32 and most 5's are pretty good in that give an extra spare 6.

I will make the following approximate balances. I will call 4 gin numbers right away and take away all race chance for opponent but will say that one of those good 5's do not occur.

So in 32 games I am approximating as though we got something like a 62 and that black must hit to have a chance to win.

Assuming black holds his position we have 64 63 62 61 as 8 blotting numbers. We have 65 66 55 33 as 5 gin numbers. 22 and 11 help a lot so I will count it as 6 gin numbers vs 8 bad numbers. Other rolls basically repeat except we have a chance of running out of 5's which gives 8 more blotting numbers. I will SWAG that on avg it will be close to 9 blotting numbers.

6 vs 9 means a 60% chance of leaving a shot. It gets hit about 1/3 of the time. 20% of 32/36 is about 18%. We will save some of those.

I think it is a big double and a very small take.

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