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OTB and RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 19 July 2014, at 10:52 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action? (John O'Hagan)

Had this pos the other day vs. XG. Assuming an even opponent (not the case here), black's tp is 16% and White's redoubling window is from 76% to 84%.

Per the Woolsey rule, does Black have a take? The four joker doubles are close to gin for White but how about the other 32? Assuming White plays one checker off the 12-point, he will have 6 clearing jokers (the same 4 dubs plus 65) and 8 blotting numbers. Based on this 8 to 6 ratio, White figures to leave a shot about 18 times and to roll a safe clearing number the other 14. Black will hit about 1/3 of the 18 for 6 hits. Plus White will sometimes be forced to break his 6-point while waiting for a clearing number which will create 8 more blotting numbers. Also, Black might split his spare on the 17-point with a 1 or a 2, or maybe even a 3, which could give him a double shot if White then leaves a shot. Thirdly, White's D3 and D2 aren't completely safe. These additional factors probably add around 1 more hit. That's a total of 7 hits. 7/36 is ~ 19.5%. All hits don't win of course since Black will have recubed to 8 by then so I'd guess these hits will result in around 17.5% wins for Black. So Black does have a take.

Should White recube? Sure looks like it. Not everyone will take but even if you are sure that Black will take, you still have to redouble here. You're really close to the trailer's point of last take in a hugely volatile position. Rolling a clearing number anytime within the next few rolls will be an enormous market loser since Black's racing chances will likely be around 1%. You eventually roll a clearing joker 18/36 and you leave a shot and are missed another 11/36 which means you lose your market by a wide margin an incredible 29/36!

It went R/T in the match. I failed to clear for a few rolls and XG split from 17/15 with a 2 when I had a blot on my 6-point. I then rolled a joker 42 which hit and covered and went on to win.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 115
5 point match
pip: 81
score: 2

is Player 1
XGID=-BABBCB-c---C----b-dbbb---:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 81.95% (G:3.30% B:0.00%) 81.99% (G:4.42% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.05% (G:1.14% B:0.03%) 18.01% (G:1.30% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities +0.652 +1.116
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.797 (-0.075)0.010 (+0.787..+0.807)
Redouble/Take:+0.8720.012 (+0.860..+0.884)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.128)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 11 minutes 47 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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