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OLM 20140723B The Prime Factors

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Wednesday, 23 July 2014, at 8:02 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140723B The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

The risk of b/14 is {61,43} = 4/36 eff. 3/36

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Is the contact move b/19 10/5 too risky?

{D3,32} = 3/36 hit and cover

{31,34,35,65,D1} = 9/36 leave one direct, eff. 6/36

{36} = 2/36 leaves a double shot eff. 1/36

Total eff. risk = 10/36

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The reward is that after white's {51,52,54,D5,64,62,61} = 13/36 blue's position is better.

The smaller white moves: {42,41} = 4/36 give some waste.

So against the 7/36 extra risk stand 17/36 reward in the shape of a better position.

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After b/14 the position is about 80% for blue, being hit without a return gives white an advantage,

but not yet a double, say 40% for blue.

The reward changes the position from 80% to 90% I guess, so the reward has to be 4 times bigger than the risk.

It isn't.

Answer: b/14

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