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OLM 20140724A The Prime Factors

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Thursday, 24 July 2014, at 6:55 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140724A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

Bar/18 is not without risk: 11/36 + {D1,53} = 14/36 eff. 10/36.

The other options are much riskier b/19 14/13 is risky without reward.

B/19 4x3 has a 20/36 risk eff. 14/36.

The reward of this extra risk is an extra gammonchance of about 10 to 20%.

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Is the risk worth it?

After b/18 will white have a DP situation after a hot without a return? I think so.

So this variation gives us 10/36 losses, 4/36 wins (the returns).

In the other 22 games we have the upper hand, because of our outfield control.

Let's say we win about 70%, that's 15 wins, 7 losses. Total 19 wins, 17 losses.

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After b/19 4x3 the situation is more complex.

We lose in 14/36, we win 6/36 (the returns).

In case of a non-hit (16/36) we can cover (1, chance 11/36), semi-cover (4 or 5, chance 19/36) or non-cover (6/36).

After covering (5 games), I guess 5 wins (of which 1 gammon)

After semi-covering (8 games), I guess 5 wins (of which 1 gammon) and 3 losses

After non-covering (3 games), I guess 1 win (no gammons) and 2 losses.

Totally I count 17 wins and 19 losses and 2 gammons.

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Answer: b/18

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