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Avoid gammonish positions at 2a3a?

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Sunday, 27 July 2014, at 2:19 a.m.

In Response To: Avoid gammonish positions at 2a3a? (Timothy Chow)

Decision whether to make aggressive play ATS is linked to how likely your opponent will eventually turn the cube after either play. The smaller the difference of seeing the cube between two plays, the more likely aggressive play is right.

In first position:
Lets say play A wins 65% ,and 15% gammons, and loses 5% gammons.
Lets say play B wins 64% ,and 22% gammons, and loses 7% gammons.

In second position:
Lets say play C wins 70% ,and 15% gammons, and loses 5% gammons.
Lets say play D wins 69% ,and 22% gammons, and loses 7% gammons.

Aggressive play is more likely to be correct in second. The reason lies in probabilities of cubing. Because 2a player wins more often, he is less likely to see cube.

In your position, I would just run. It seems to me he is only smallish/solidish favorite after aggressive play, and his extra gammons will not count often enough due to all those games where she turns the cube. Also, if he runs now and is missed, his chances of eventually turn the cube himself also go up.

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