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OLM 20140726A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Sunday, 27 July 2014, at 6:03 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140726A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION (Jason Lee)

If we play 4/3* and don't get hit we are in great shape and think our gammon wins will balance our losses. So I count this as 16 wins. 8 of the 20 hits close his board. If we don't get a 6 (5.5 games) they have lost their market by a lot. Maybe TG but not by much. If we get a 6 right away (2.5 games) they have an advantage. I will say 1 win for us and 7 for them in these 8 games. 12 of their hits leave a 4 point board with some of them leaving a blot for us to shoot for. If we don't enter (almost 6 games) they have a good cube. If we enter they have an advantage with the cube. I will say 2.5 wins for us. So adjusting for gammon wins and cubes about 19.5 wins for us.

If we play b/18 they still have a lot of very good rolls. Seven rolls (23, 21, 11, 52) put us on bar vs a 5 point board. 66 wins for them. 61 and 43 give them a solid advantage with a racing lead and cube access. 44 and maybe 46 means we have to hit immediately to stay alive. The quiet variations often leave us down in the race so we will have to take our chances with their straggler later on instead. Hitting later on 3 point (if we can) gives them 11 instead of 20 returns but their board will probably be safer by then. I am less confident about us being a favorite considering the cube access.

I stick with hitting.

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