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Tough decision

Posted By: Keene
Date: Sunday, 27 July 2014, at 7:58 p.m.

In Response To: Tough decision (Keene)

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 143
5 point match
pip: 121
score: 3

is Player 1
XGID=----a-ECCB--e-B--c-cc-----:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 81.51% (G:14.87% B:0.17%) 81.80% (G:16.13% B:0.19%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 18.49% (G:1.46% B:0.07%) 18.20% (G:1.50% B:0.14%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.903 +1.966
Cubeful Equities
No double:+1.048±0.008 (+1.040..+1.056)
Double/Take:+1.536 (+0.488)±0.014 (+1.522..+1.550)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.048)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 9.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74648402
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 47 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I cubed it OTB, then followed up with 61 to my opps 66. Typical. I won anyway, but it certainly got hairy.

K

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