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42P-31P-66B-42 – Unlimited Games – 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 28 July 2014, at 11:02 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Ian Dunstan)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 137 Unlimited Game pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BDbB---cE---bbd-b--B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 42

1.	Rollout1	24/22 24/20	eq: -0.7649
	Player: Opponent: 33.23% (G:6.18% B:0.25%) 66.77% (G:22.60% B:0.54%) Conf.: ±0.0048 (-0.7697...-0.7601) - [16.7%] Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/9 6/4	eq: -0.7869 (-0.0220)
	Player: Opponent: 31.58% (G:6.89% B:0.28%) 68.42% (G:19.94% B:1.30%) Conf.: ±0.0054 (-0.7922...-0.7815) - [16.7%] Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.	Rollout1	8/4 6/4	eq: -0.7907 (-0.0257)
	Player: Opponent: 31.01% (G:6.73% B:0.25%) 68.99% (G:18.80% B:0.96%) Conf.: ±0.0052 (-0.7958...-0.7855) - [16.7%] Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
4.	Rollout2	24/22 13/9	eq: -0.7970 (-0.0321)
	Player: Opponent: 32.74% (G:7.20% B:0.31%) 67.26% (G:23.93% B:0.98%) Conf.: ±0.0070 (-0.8041...-0.7900) - [16.7%] Duration: 37 minutes 41 seconds
5.	Rollout3	24/20 6/4	eq: -0.8191 (-0.0542)
	Player: Opponent: 32.94% (G:7.13% B:0.29%) 67.06% (G:25.46% B:0.92%) Conf.: ±0.0092 (-0.8283...-0.8100) - [16.7%] Duration: 24 minutes 51 seconds
6.	Rollout3	24/20 13/11	eq: -0.8397 (-0.0747)
	Player: Opponent: 32.32% (G:7.01% B:0.29%) 67.68% (G:24.95% B:1.18%) Conf.: ±0.0091 (-0.8488...-0.8306) - [16.7%] Duration: 25 minutes 25 seconds
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 67147402 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 67147402 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 67147402 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike 2014-Jul-27 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 42P-31P-66B-42-n-tm.xgp n[U N22 P26 Z32 E54 S75] "<=15**7 5 n[U Z22 N30 P31 E44 S78] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Splitting Is More Urgent Than Unstacking

Trying for an advanced anchor is the top priority here. Unfortunately, any split you make is bound to be attacked. Because of that it is too risky to leave a blot in the outer board, even though unstacking is needed.

It also makes sense that the moves that slot the 4pt do not fare well. There may be an exchange of hits upcoming. Blue cannot afford to leave a blot in his inner board when he has so few covers for it.

The best split starts the 22pt and the 20pt. Both points can see daylight. Making either one would be a big improvement for Blue.

Compared to this 15k rollout, both the 1k rollout by Ian and the XGR++ eval look pretty bad. The GnuBg trunc in the table below did better than both of them.

Mike

 

42P-31P-66B-42 — Unlimited Games

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 1.02 2-ply Trunc	720794025	–789.929	n[U N12 P14 Z14 E40 S75] '/0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	46439698	–748	[U P37 N37 Z39 E74 S111] "<=1	Ian Dunstan
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	67147402	–786.9	n[U N22 P26 Z32 E54 S75] "<=15**7 5	Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	–769.8	n[U Z22 N30 P31 E44 S78] "&e	Taper_Mike

Key: C = Cross [24/20, 8/6], c = cross [24/22, 8/4], E = Each [24/20, 6/4], P = Point [8/4, 6/4], S = Split and down [24/20, 13/11], U = Up [24/22, 24/20], Z = Reverse split and down [24/22, 13/9]

Nactation Tutorial • Explanation of nacbracs • Nacbracs for cube actions

Messages In This Thread

• Early 42 to play
  Ian Dunstan -- Thursday, 24 July 2014, at 10:53 a.m.
  • Early 42 to play
    Keene -- Thursday, 24 July 2014, at 2:49 p.m.
  • Early 42 to play
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 24 July 2014, at 5:20 p.m.
    • Variation
      Ian Dunstan -- Saturday, 26 July 2014, at 2:46 a.m.
  • Early 42 to play
    Sam Pottle -- Friday, 25 July 2014, at 3:22 a.m.
    • Early 42 to play
      neilkaz -- Friday, 25 July 2014, at 3:35 p.m.
  • Early 42 to play
    Fatboy -- Friday, 25 July 2014, at 5:59 a.m.
  • Early 42 to play
    Ian Shaw -- Friday, 25 July 2014, at 6:53 a.m.
    • Early 42 to play
      neilkaz -- Friday, 25 July 2014, at 3:33 p.m.
    • Early 42 to play
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 25 July 2014, at 5:08 p.m.
      • Early 42 to play
        Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 27 July 2014, at 6:44 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Ian Dunstan -- Saturday, 26 July 2014, at 2:12 a.m.
    • Wow**NM**
      Fatboy -- Saturday, 26 July 2014, at 10:24 p.m.
    • 42P-31P-66B-42 – Unlimited Games – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 28 July 2014, at 11:02 a.m.
  • 21$-66B-51P-42P-42 – A Related Variant
    Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 27 July 2014, at 7:47 a.m.
    • 21$-66B-51P-42P-42 – A Related Variant
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 27 July 2014, at 2:58 p.m.
    • 21$-66B-51P-42P-42 – Unlimited Games – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 28 July 2014, at 11:12 a.m.
      • 21$-66B-51P-42P-42 – Unlimited Games – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
        Ian Dunstan -- Monday, 28 July 2014, at 1:09 p.m.
        • 21$-66B-51P-42P-42 – Unlimited Games – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 28 July 2014, at 5:26 p.m.
          • 21$-66B-51P-42P-42 – Unlimited Games – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
            Ian Dunstan -- Tuesday, 29 July 2014, at 7:51 a.m.
            • 21$-66B-51P-42P-42 – Unlimited Games – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
              Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 29 July 2014, at 12:39 p.m.
              • 21$-66B-51P-42P-42 – Unlimited Games – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
                Ian Dunstan -- Tuesday, 29 July 2014, at 1:06 p.m.
            • 21$-66B-51P-42P-42 – Unlimited Games – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
              Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 30 July 2014, at 12:40 a.m.