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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout and analysis
Posted By: Wolfgang In Response To: Rollout and analysis (Timothy Chow)
Date: Tuesday, 29 July 2014, at 12:11 p.m.
I missed that, but I took some notes last night.
In the past, I was inclined to obey Stick´s Rule about not doubling at 3a/many without knowing that this rule exists and that it is called Stick´s Rule ;-).
In the meantime, I have recognized the need for readjusting my cube decisions at said score, because I avoided turning the cube far too often. The results of bot analysis indicate that. Presently, I try to rectify the fault.
For this reason, I would probably have doubled here before the current roll: Blue is ahead in the pipcount by 23 pips, and he has a 3 point board with a total of 11 checkers in the attacking zone. White, however, suffers from the absence of an anchor. Depending on the next roll, Blue can choose either a blitzing or a priming strategy. He will obtain good gammon chances.
So far, so good. Last night, I thought that White would probably have a thin take due to this score. I misjudged this completely.With regard to the checker play, I found the correct DMP play. The 8 point provides the best long-term perspective for Blue, and it should win more games than the hitting plays. But again, I misjudged the quality of the hitting plays. At 3a7a, with White owning the cube, I considered 7/2* 6/4* to overplay the position. Hence, I prefered the wrong play 10/5, 6/4*.
Yet it is striking that the dull play 10/5, 7/5 is better than 10/5, 6/4* in both cases (money and match). That play did not cross my mind at all.
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