Exactly how do the top giants make recube decisions in a long match with a scewed score? (long and theoretical)
Posted By: Tenland
Date: Wednesday, 30 July 2014, at 4:14 p.m.
All right, this is perhaps a bit heavy, but I'm beginning to look into the details of (long) match play, and would be extremely grateful if someone would help me out on what calculations the very best players do when making complex recube descisons.
Even though I know what basic take point and gammon values mean, that you can assume a cube efficiency of 0.7 (or estimate one in the position) and so on, I wonder what you do in practise.
Let's assume you have a tricky take/pass decision on a 4 cube.
Assuming you know the basic takepoint and the opponents basic take point of the 8 cube and your own of the 16 cube, you could estimate the efficiency of the recubes and calculate a recube adjusted take point.
Question 1: Do you do this in practise, or do you already have a rough and ready number for the score memorized (exactly or in terms of a ball park) taking recubes into account?
Often the positon will involve gammon risk (and perhaps also gammon winning chances). In that case I wonder how you include the gammons and recube potential in your calculations. It doesn't seem correct to just multiply our own gammons with our gammon value and add that to our winnings. We only have that gammon value if we get to the state of a play-on (too good), otherwise another gammon value will be more relevant. Actually, the same is true for our opponent as well (to a smaller extent, I would think): he might still have some gammon chances left when we recube him, changing his gammon value.
Question 2: How do you take this into account?
One thing is when to take/pass, but I haven't found much theory on when to cube (at non-NMS). Obviously, there are scores where you need to be much more careful with the cube and scores where great aggression is called for, but I mean more precise guidelines than those. Maybe you could look at markets losers using some new criteria compared to NMS, or demand that you are within a given distance of the opponents take point, or...
Question 3: How do you determine when to redouble at these scewed scores?
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