This position came up in an online match that I played today, and was reviewing my errors. Money games, and at most normal match scores, I'm shipping the cube here. But, I felt OTB that I was potentially giving up too much to get very little. After analyzing the match XG shows it's a redouble/take...but I'm still not exactly sure why. I may be looking at this completely wrong and would appreciate some insight into the logic that makes this are redouble.
My thoughts are.
If I ship this cube: 86.11% of the time I'm winning the match right now. 13.89% of the time I'm losing 8 points because my opponent is shipping back to 8.
If I don't ship the cube: 86.11% of the time I win the game, I'll be at 91.9% to win the match, and 13.89% of the time I lose game, I'll be at 73.9% to win the match. At my calculation, this puts me at an 89.4% chance to win the match after the game.
So, not reshipping makes me an 89.4% favorite, and reshipping gives me the match 86.11% of the time and down 13 - 11 13.11% of the time.
Ok, as I'm typing this I realize that I was forgetting about the % of wins I still get after losing 8 points this game, which is 33.6%. Adding that to the 86.11% that would have already ended the match, and it makes me a 90.5% favorite if I was to recube.
Now, it seems to make sense, but please let me know if this still isn't correct.