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4a-2a Cube from the roof vs 5 point board.

Posted By: scotty
Date: Friday, 8 August 2014, at 6:54 a.m.

In Response To: 4a-2a Cube from the roof vs 5 point board. (BenF)

heaven help me here, i'm sticking my neck out.

one thing is certain for blue, trailing in the match, blues cube window opens at greater than 50%, and if my calculations are correct, his window opens at about 63%. I've calculated whites drop point at 20%, with a dead cube if white takes. I'm not sure how volatility affects these numbers.

Blue has 11/36 chances to get off the bar on his next roll. And if blue does re-enter, he still won't win all of those 11/36 games. If blue misses, he will win some of the games. If blue cubes, he will have some gammon potential, but i think blue needs all of his wins to be gammons to make this a cube.

I'll say No Double/Take.

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