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RO & comments

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 11 August 2014, at 7:04 p.m.

In Response To: 64S-41X-22 (John O'Hagan)

This came up the other day vs. XG. Must've forgotten this one (or never learned it). XG didn't like my play of 25/21 6/4(2) and instead preferred leaving a double shot with 25/23 6/4(2) 13/11! This seems a little wreckless at first glance but makes sense the more you look at it. 6s & 4s are really duped and a lot of the opponent's next rolls are hard to play well. Set up XG's play and then run through all of the oppt's possible rolls and see how often the play you'd make disagrees with XG's choice. A lot of these errors are not the .01 or so variety.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 164
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a---aE-CA--eD---bae----AA:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
to play 22

1.Rollout1Bar/23 13/11 6/4(2)eq: +0.169
Player:
Opponent:		54.08% (G:16.47% B:0.86%)
45.92% (G:12.94% B:0.74%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.164...+0.173) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 21 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 8/4 6/4eq: +0.158 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		53.51% (G:16.31% B:0.77%)
46.49% (G:12.41% B:0.59%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.154...+0.162) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 33 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/23 24/18* eq: +0.132 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:		52.91% (G:15.21% B:0.76%)
47.09% (G:12.49% B:0.52%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.121...+0.143) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
4.3-plyBar/23 24/22 6/4(2)eq: +0.117 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:		53.12% (G:15.01% B:0.81%)
46.88% (G:12.22% B:0.52%)
5.3-plyBar/21 6/4(2)eq: +0.113 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:		53.14% (G:14.46% B:0.79%)
46.86% (G:12.16% B:0.56%)
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 87281296
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 87281296
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

For comparison, look at 64S-64X-22(thx to David Presser for suggesting this). Here the best play is 25/23 8/4 6/4. Maybe the non-stripped 8-point is the deciding factor?

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 164
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a---aE-CA--dD---cae----AA:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
to play 22

1.Rollout1Bar/23 8/4 6/4eq: +0.045
Player:
Opponent:		50.99% (G:15.16% B:0.69%)
49.01% (G:13.77% B:0.67%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.042...+0.048) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 23 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 6/4(2)eq: +0.037 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		51.16% (G:14.05% B:0.76%)
48.84% (G:14.28% B:0.68%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.034...+0.041) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 48 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/23 13/11 6/4(2)eq: +0.029 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		51.10% (G:14.88% B:0.76%)
48.90% (G:14.87% B:0.89%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.023...+0.035) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 11 minutes
4.Rollout3Bar/23 24/18* eq: +0.015 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		50.41% (G:13.41% B:0.68%)
49.59% (G:13.73% B:0.54%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.007...+0.023) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
5.2-plyBar/23 24/22 6/4(2)eq: +0.019 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		50.48% (G:13.83% B:0.67%)
49.52% (G:13.42% B:0.57%)
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 53923039
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 53923039
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 53923039
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

Thanks also to David Rockwell for the rollouts.

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