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OLM 20140814A The Prime Factors
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Sunday, 17 August 2014, at 12:58 p.m.
In Response To: OLM 20140814A The Prime Factors (Bob Koca)
The only move I see after which they have a take is {61}.
So I see this as the only market loser. I think a 2anchor behind a 5prime is a DP. And even when we blot our midpoint after for example {54} 13/8 7/3, it still is DP.
Maybe I am wrong with the definition of market loser, but this is how I see it:
Our market is now 100%, since we can double and he should pass.
When we both move now and we double then and it's a DT, then the market is around 75%, thus we lost 25% of our market.
Winning a gammon gains 100%, going to a DT position loses 25%.
So when there is a 2/36 chance {61} of going to a DT (losing market), we should play on when we estimate our gammonchance to be 1/72.
I think the gammonchance is much higher than this 1,5%.
So: Too Good To Double

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