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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20140814A The Prime Factors
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: OLM 20140814A The Prime Factors (kruidenbuiltje)
Date: Sunday, 17 August 2014, at 3:59 p.m.
You are making some errors. Some are theoretical and some are about judging the position.
The most important theoretical error is that you are not thinking about the sequence. We don't get to double until after opponent has rolled. After the 54 roll you mentioned 13 rolls hit us and 55 is also a joker and then we probably don't even have a double any more let alone a cash.
Also you are overvaluing how strong the broken 5 prime is while possibly not worrying about our problems on the other side of the board. Even something neutralish like 64 after our 54 doesn't leave us with a cash. Also when looking at the gammons won when we make the prime you need to look at the risk involved. If we don't get a third checker back the risk means we probably would just be cashing then anyways. And while trying for that we have some crashing risk from rolls like 44 or 22.
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