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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20140817A The Dilly Builders
Posted By: David Rennie In Response To: OLM 20140817A The Dilly Builders (Jason Lee)
Date: Monday, 18 August 2014, at 1:26 a.m.
This reminds me of the position that was posted last week from Monte Carlo which a number of very good players suggested was a take but turned out to be a pass. The numbers were in the neighborhood of 27% wins and 19% gammons lost as I recall. A big difference here is they have their 5-point made whereas in the other position the 5-point and bar point were open. So that's in White's favor. In our favor is the fact that in the race here we're only 8 behind as opposed to 55 in the other. So the race is better but our timing is much worse. White will probably cover or safety that blot and then move their back men around while we struggle to not crunch. Just for poop and laughs I'm going to guess we're looking at about 25% wins and 16% gammons lost with maybe 4% gammons won. If those numbers are close that puts us pretty solidly in pass territory I think. At best we are at 27% wins I'd think so to make this a take we'd have to lose net 12% gammons or less. Assuming gammons are worth .5 for both of us and I suspect they're worth more for them anyway so that number is probably high. Not only do I not think we win 27% of the time but I can't believe we lose less than 12% gammons. It would be so much easier not to make a fool of myself with this analysis and just make a guess about the cube but this is the OLM where reputations are made and lost every day so if any of you smart people (like Neil) care to show where I've erred in my thinking please proceed.
••••Pass••••
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