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Rollout - original position

Posted By: Ian Dunstan
Date: Monday, 18 August 2014, at 11:43 a.m.

In Response To: Ed O'Laughlin Vs. David Presser - Wisconsin 2014 (Dmitriy Obukhov)





White is David Presser

score: 0
pip: 151
11 point match
pip: 150
score: 6

Blue is Ed O'Laughlin
XGID=----AbEBB---dCa--b-d-b-AA-:0:0:1:53:6:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout16/1 4/1eq: -0.647
Player:
Opponent:		39.17% (G:9.16% B:0.22%)
60.83% (G:18.77% B:0.62%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.659...-0.636) - [93.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 7/4eq: -0.660 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		38.72% (G:9.26% B:0.39%)
61.28% (G:18.95% B:0.65%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.673...-0.648) - [6.6%]
Duration: 48 minutes 47 seconds
3.Rollout17/4 7/2eq: -0.686 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		38.66% (G:9.23% B:0.28%)
61.34% (G:20.21% B:0.68%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.700...-0.672) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
4.Rollout213/8 6/3eq: -0.695 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		39.24% (G:9.44% B:0.43%)
60.76% (G:21.37% B:0.97%)		Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.713...-0.676) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 54 seconds
5.Rollout38/3 6/3eq: -0.703 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:		38.53% (G:10.97% B:0.76%)
61.47% (G:20.93% B:1.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.025 (-0.728...-0.677) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds
6.Rollout223/15eq: -0.738 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:		38.02% (G:8.85% B:0.51%)
61.98% (G:21.12% B:0.69%)		Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.756...-0.719) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 40 seconds
7.Rollout223/20 13/8eq: -0.758 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:		37.88% (G:9.35% B:0.41%)
62.12% (G:21.70% B:0.72%)		Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.777...-0.740) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 38 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10510786
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Huge

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10510786
First 4 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Remaining moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
Search interval: Huge

3 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10510786
First 4 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Remaining moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I would have blundered with 23/20 13/8 which I now see is way too dangerous. Ed played 13/8 6/3 which is a much more reasonable choice, though it turns out to be an error. A play like 6/1 4/1 just isn't one I will ever find easily, burying two checkers on the ace pt doesn't come easily to me here.

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