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42P-63? at 3 Away v 4 Away

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Thursday, 21 August 2014, at 3:22 p.m.

In Response To: 42P-63? at 3 Away v 4 Away (Neil Robins)

It looks like XGR++ is wrong about the cube.

I don't have a rollout for this. And even if I did, it may be wrong since the cube is played wrong. So, what evidence do we have?

For money, 63S is best by a very small margin in a 4 ply rollout. It should be noted that the margin is greater using 3 ply. So, going to 4 ply should favor 63R. In all the discussion that follows, we can expect that 4 ply would increase our preference for R.

Money is not the same as 4a scores. I would be very surprise if 63R wasn't best at 4a4a.

In general, scores where responder is leading will favor R over S and scores where responder is trailing will favor S over R. If R is best at 4a4a, I would also expect it to be best at 3a4a even without considering immediate cubes.

Put all of this together and 63R looks like it would be best in a rollout with the cube played correctly. I would play R.

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