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Explain XG rollout results to the not bot-savvy

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Thursday, 21 August 2014, at 6:52 p.m.

In Response To: Explain XG rollout results to the not bot-savvy (leobueno)


A rollout of a checker play looks something like: 

 

XGID=-BBABBBbB---c-----B-babcb-:0:0:1:32:2:1:0:5:10 

 

    1. Rollout¹    8/3                          eq:+0.486 

      Player:   62.36% (G:13.55% B:0.34%) 

      Opponent: 37.64% (G:2.88% B:0.05%) 

      Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.477..+0.496) - [100.0%] 

      Duration: 1 minute 32 seconds 

 

    2. Rollout¹    6/4 6/3                      eq:+0.373 (-0.113) 

      Player:   60.61% (G:10.04% B:0.15%) 

      Opponent: 39.39% (G:3.56% B:0.06%) 

      Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.362..+0.384) - [0.0%] 

      Duration: 1 minute 50 seconds 

 

 

 

¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. 

   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


XGID=-BBABBBbB---c-----B-babcb-:0:0:1:32:2:1:0:5:10 is the match id. You can paste it into XG.

Then there is a list of moves, listed in order of how good they are. I've only included two, but you can include as many as are interesting.

The first line "1. Rollout¹ 8/3 eq:+0.486" gives the move and it's equity. if it's money play, then it's the actual equity, if match play it's EMG or equivalent money game. You can google these for more info, but suffice it to say that higher is better.

The next line "Player: 62.36% (G:13.55% B:0.34%)" says that after this play X will win 62.36% of games, will win a gammon 13.55% of the time and a backgammon 0.34%

The next line "Opponent: 37.64% (G:2.88% B:0.05%)" says that your opponent will win 62.36% of games, will win gammon 2.88% of the time and a backgammon 0.05%.

"Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.477..+0.496) - [100.0%]" tells you how statistically significant the result is - in this case XG is 100% confident that this is the best move.

"Duration' is self explanatory.

For the second and subsequent moves, it lists the equity and also the difference between the move in question and the top move.
So, " 2. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/3 eq:+0.373 (-0.113)"
says this move has equity of .373 which is .113 worse than the top move.

Generally, for checker play the equity difference is the most important number. Anything above .03 is considered an error, and anything above .08 is a blunder. If you can get to the point where you are making no blunders you're doing very very well.




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