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OLM 20140820A The Prime Factors
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Thursday, 21 August 2014, at 9:04 p.m.
In Response To: OLM 20140820A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)
Apart from the pretty bold 13/7, I see 11/5 and 13/8 11/10.

Let's first look at the safe/boldcriteria:
Anchor  yes, Behind  yes, better board  yes, blots in inner board  no. On top of this we are behind in the match.
Hmmm. I am beginning to feel for slotting.

What about the risk: 11/36 + {51,42,D3} = 16/36
{61,51,42,D6} have 26/36 returns {D3,62,63} have 16/36 returns. {64,65} are just plain bad for us.
So the effective risk lies somewhere around 9/36, the reward (good point, 4prime) every 1,4,6 = 27/36 + {D2,D3,32,D5} = 32/36.
The reward only occurs in 27/36 of the cases, so the effective reward is 24/36.

How about the safe 11/5: Good are {21,41,42,61,D3,D2,D1,32,52,53,D6} = 18/36 reward.

And now the medium 13/8 11/10 with a 3/36 risk: Good are {42,62,64,31,61,63,53,D2,D3,D6,41,D1} = 20/36 reward.

When I solely base a conclusion on the difference between risks and rewards, the safe play would score highest and the boldplay lowest.
But the barpoint is a better reward than the 3, 4 or 9point, since it blocks the checker more effectively.
Answer: 13/7

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