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OLM 20140820A The Prime Factors

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Thursday, 21 August 2014, at 9:04 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140820A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

Apart from the pretty bold 13/7, I see 11/5 and 13/8 11/10.

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Let's first look at the safe/bold-criteria:

Anchor - yes, Behind - yes, better board - yes, blots in inner board - no. On top of this we are behind in the match.

Hmmm. I am beginning to feel for slotting.

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What about the risk: 11/36 + {51,42,D3} = 16/36

{61,51,42,D6} have 26/36 returns {D3,62,63} have 16/36 returns. {64,65} are just plain bad for us.

So the effective risk lies somewhere around 9/36, the reward (good point, 4-prime) every 1,4,6 = 27/36 + {D2,D3,32,D5} = 32/36.

The reward only occurs in 27/36 of the cases, so the effective reward is 24/36.

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How about the safe 11/5: Good are {21,41,42,61,D3,D2,D1,32,52,53,D6} = 18/36 reward.

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And now the medium 13/8 11/10 with a 3/36 risk: Good are {42,62,64,31,61,63,53,D2,D3,D6,41,D1} = 20/36 reward.

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When I solely base a conclusion on the difference between risks and rewards, the safe play would score highest and the bold-play lowest.

But the bar-point is a better reward than the 3-, 4- or 9-point, since it blocks the checker more effectively.

Answer: 13/7

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