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64S-22E-44

Posted By: tuvi
Date: Tuesday, 26 August 2014, at 2:22 p.m.

In Response To: 64S-22E-44 (David Presser)

I was also shocked by the right answer and the only way to solve the mystery is to look at how all of the 2nd rolls turn out for each option.

If you play 24/16 18/14 13/9, 14 rolls don't hit you which put you up ~+0.350 in game equity based on good racing chances and good checker placement. Even if opponent rolls boxes we are still ahead 20% in equity.

22 numbers hit and 3 numbers double hit with double 4s costing us as much equity as a double hit. Provided it isn't one of those 4 rolls, the best number opponent can roll is 6-4 which only puts him ahead 9% in equity.

So to sum it up, you have 14 rolls to give you a sizable edge in the game. 18 rolls that put the game very close to even, and 4 rolls that give opponent a sizable edge. Seems like a fair enough gamble to me.

While the other plays are not as risky as this one, when you do a proper risk vs reward study you come out that it is better to take the risk here because the reward is better than playing safe.

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