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Small technical play #2

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Wednesday, 27 August 2014, at 1:12 p.m.

In Response To: Small technical play #2 (Ian Dunstan)

Staying odd on the 4-point leaves you susceptible to a subsequent 4-4, 5-5, or 6-6. However those rolls also take four checkers off. If you take two off this turn and four off next turn, that leaves only 6 checkers. According to Michael's 432-Rule, if we are hit, closed out, and our 5 remaining checkers are on the ace-point, then White's chance of winning is only about 40%. Our checkers aren't as well placed as that, so let's call it 50%.

I think I'd take two off.

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