I have given some thoughts to your observation. I believe that you are not focusing on the core - the 22 pt anchor.
To illustrate my point, I have rolled 64S-11@-44, i.e., just having the 22 pt anchor. The results show that it is the 22 pt anchor that lead to the play of volunteering a double shot in front of the mid-pt. I have rolled another variant in which I moved a spare to the opp’s 8 pt in order to strengthen his forward position. The volunteer play is clearly best in this variation. Note that, as in the original position (64S-22E-44), the rollout increases the equity of the volunteering a double shot play and XG++ evaluation has those wrong (as can be seen on the bottom for comparison).
I am still not sure I understand the logic. In your original comment you mentioned the family of volunteering a double shot with duplication. I was thinking that you may have a point there as the hitting numbers are also numbers that aren't blocking the anchor but don't see a reason to break the anchor as White is behind in the race.
It appears to be an interesting position although I am not sure how much we should get out of it in practice (at least until we understand it better).
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 163 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 157
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---b--E-CA--eD---cAe----A-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 44 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/16 18/14 13/9 | eq: +0.391 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.06% (G:9.37% B:0.42%)
38.94% (G:8.88% B:0.29%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.384...+0.398) - [96.2%]
Duration: 31 minutes 07 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout2 | 24/20 18/10 13/9 | eq: +0.381 (-0.009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.10% (G:11.73% B:0.46%)
39.90% (G:8.88% B:0.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.374...+0.389) - [3.8%]
Duration: 28 minutes 54 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 18/10 13/9(2) | eq: +0.373 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.55% (G:13.31% B:0.54%)
40.45% (G:8.92% B:0.31%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.366...+0.381) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 07 seconds |
|
| 4. | 3-ply | 18/6 13/9 | eq: +0.287 (-0.103) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.95% (G:11.30% B:0.33%)
41.05% (G:8.82% B:0.22%) | |
|
| 5. | 3-ply | 18/14 13/5 9/5 | eq: +0.275 (-0.116) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.93% (G:12.99% B:0.42%)
42.07% (G:8.61% B:0.27%) | |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 5083637
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15791908
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 157
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---b--E-CA--dD---dAe----A-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 44 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/16 18/14 13/9 | eq: +0.361 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.40% (G:8.77% B:0.37%)
39.60% (G:9.19% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.354...+0.368) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/20 18/10 13/9 | eq: +0.330 (-0.031) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.89% (G:11.37% B:0.46%)
41.11% (G:9.86% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.323...+0.337) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 20 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 18/10 13/9(2) | eq: +0.327 (-0.034) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.70% (G:12.80% B:0.53%)
41.30% (G:9.62% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.319...+0.335) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 56 seconds |
|
| 4. | 4-ply | 18/6 13/9 | eq: +0.254 (-0.107) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.73% (G:10.95% B:0.38%)
42.27% (G:9.24% B:0.26%) | |
|
| 5. | 3-ply | 18/14 13/5 9/5 | eq: +0.232 (-0.129) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.67% (G:12.80% B:0.40%)
43.33% (G:9.20% B:0.28%) | |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 27195853
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 163 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 157
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---b--E-CA--eD---cAe----A-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 44 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 18/10 13/9(2) | eq: +0.380 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.83% (G:12.96% B:0.50%)
40.17% (G:8.33% B:0.26%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 24/16 18/14 13/9 | eq: +0.365 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.79% (G:9.39% B:0.35%)
39.21% (G:8.32% B:0.25%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 24/20 18/10 13/9 | eq: +0.363 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.06% (G:11.53% B:0.43%)
39.94% (G:8.53% B:0.26%) | |
|
| 4. | 3-ply | 18/6 13/9 | eq: +0.287 (-0.093) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.95% (G:11.30% B:0.33%)
41.05% (G:8.82% B:0.22%) | |
|
| 5. | 3-ply | 18/14 13/5 9/5 | eq: +0.275 (-0.105) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.93% (G:12.99% B:0.42%)
42.07% (G:8.61% B:0.27%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 157
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---b--E-CA--dD---dAe----A-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 44 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 24/16 18/14 13/9 | eq: +0.323 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.11% (G:8.78% B:0.34%)
39.89% (G:8.78% B:0.26%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 18/10 13/9(2) | eq: +0.323 (0.000) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.68% (G:12.31% B:0.49%)
41.32% (G:9.13% B:0.29%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 24/20 18/10 13/9 | eq: +0.303 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.69% (G:11.05% B:0.41%)
41.31% (G:9.33% B:0.27%) | |
|
| 4. | 4-ply | 18/6 13/9 | eq: +0.254 (-0.070) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.73% (G:10.95% B:0.38%)
42.27% (G:9.24% B:0.26%) | |
|
| 5. | 3-ply | 18/14 13/5 9/5 | eq: +0.232 (-0.091) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.67% (G:12.80% B:0.40%)
43.33% (G:9.20% B:0.28%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10