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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 7 September 2014, at 7:25 p.m.

In Response To: 63S-53P-33E-42 (John O'Hagan)

I made the 4-point OTB but you really need to increase your chances of making an advanced anchor of your own in this position. Making the 4-point leaves that blot dangling on the 8 and you might have to leave it again next time. Plus the value of the 4-pt is somewhat reduced with Black anchored on the 18-point. How best to go for your own advanced anchor? The 20-pt is better than the 18 and you get more return hits if hit loose. OTOH, the PoH numbers are worse for you on the 20 than the 18. Apparently the gains are worth the risk so 24/20 with the 4 and then unstacking the mid is slightly better than starting the 4-pt with the deuce. I rejected this play since 13/11 gives Black 4s to hit outside while odd #'s hit or point on the 5-point. I guess the lack of duplication is outweighed by your crucial need to get the best advanced anchor available. Tough play to find OTB but the XGR+ eval found it and the RO agrees.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 146
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 159
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=---B--DbB---dE-a-c-c--b-B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
to play 42

1.Rollout124/20 13/11eq: -0.523
Player:
Opponent:		37.70% (G:9.35% B:0.39%)
62.30% (G:18.97% B:0.94%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.530...-0.517) - [99.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 6/4eq: -0.535 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		37.85% (G:9.33% B:0.40%)
62.15% (G:19.96% B:0.81%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.541...-0.528) - [0.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
3.Rollout28/4 6/4eq: -0.555 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		36.84% (G:9.44% B:0.35%)
63.16% (G:18.82% B:0.83%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.565...-0.544) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 17 seconds
4.Rollout324/18eq: -0.562 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		37.03% (G:7.73% B:0.32%)
62.97% (G:18.73% B:0.65%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.577...-0.548) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 35 seconds
5.Rollout313/9 6/4eq: -0.610 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:		36.01% (G:8.84% B:0.33%)
63.99% (G:19.11% B:1.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.625...-0.596) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 37 seconds
1 6480 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

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