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OTB & RO

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 8 September 2014, at 4:51 p.m.

In Response To: OTB & RO (John O'Hagan)

JOH wrote:

I guess the lack of duplication is outweighed by your crucial need to get the best advanced anchor available.

I think there's more to the story than that, although I'm not sure I've been able to puzzle out the whole story. For example, suppose that after you moved 24/20, your opponent offered you the option of not playing your 2 at all. Should you take the offer or should you insist on playing 13/11? XGR++ (of the opponent's resulting cube decision) says that you're slightly better off unstacking the 13pt with 13/11 than not playing the 2 at all. So there is apparently value in unstacking the 13pt despite the extra shots.

Another thing I looked at was changing the roll to 31. Now 24/21 6/5 comes out on top, slightly ahead of 8/5 6/5 and somewhat further ahead of 24/20. Again, this suggests that effective use of spares is important, and not just bidding for the best anchor.

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