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Calculating Luck in XG

Posted By: niuniuch
Date: Monday, 15 September 2014, at 10:44 a.m.

Hi,

for me, the only purpose of the 'luck' statistic is to give an answer to why I won or lost a match.

Based on that, I expect the following equation to be approximately true.

(my equity loss + my luck) - (opp equity loss + opp luck) = point difference.

For a long time I thought there was something fishy, but finally I have a solid proof.

Here are the stats from my last 13 point match.

My total equity: -1,444 My luck: +0,145

Opp total equity: -1,493 Opp luck: -0,145

Based on these numbers I would expect the match to be very close, most likely won by me. In fact, I lost the match 13:8. The reason of course is that I barely lost an 8 cube game.

I wonder what are your thoughts on that, and if you think that current XG logic is correct, what is the purpose of 'luck'.

Jacek

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